Re: Sony Motion Controller
 

I tend to forget the timeframes from previous generations, so let's recap, going by American release dates and price in the U.S.:

Third Generation (8-bit era)
NES: October 18, 1985 -- $199
Sega Master System: June 1 1986 -- $199

Fourth Generation (16-bit era)
Genesis:September 15, 1989 --$190
SNES: August 1991 -- $199.99

Fifth Generation (32-bit, 64-bit and 3D-1 Era)
Saturn: May 11, 1995 -- $399
PS1: September 9, 1995 -- $299.99
N64: September 29, 1996 -- $199

Sixth Generation (3D-2 Era)
Dreamcast: September 9, 1999 - $199.99
PS2: October 26, 2000 -- $299.99
Xbox: November 15, 2001 -- $299.99
GCN: November 18, 2001 -- $199.99

Seventh Generation (3D-3 & Motion-1 Era)
X360: November 22, 2005 -- $399.99 (Premium)
PS3: November 17, 2006 -- $599.99 (Premium)
Wii: November 19, 2006 -- $249.99

So the time between generations, going by the most successful console at the time of a generation change, was:

NES-->SNES: 6 years
SNES-->N64: 5 years
PS1-->PS2: 5 Years
PS2-->PS3: 6 Years

So on average, the typical time before the next generation release is 5.5 years.

So, if the next generation comes out in 2012, and assuming the Wii is the most successful of this generation, that actually puts things right on track.

I think the new consoles will start coming out in 2012.

Re: Sony Motion Controller
 

I had 2012 pegged as the start of the next generation as well, but who's chicken first and announces their next console?

I mean business wise, would make the most sense for Nintendo since aren't releasing new tech at the end of the year, but also the market leader so hard to say.

Re: Sony Motion Controller
 

From a history standpoint, it's usually not the front runner who kicks off the generation.. it's one of the companies that did worse in sales. It makes sense because if you're moving the most hardware, you're probably not going to be in any rush for things to change.

So it's on Sony, or maybe Microsoft (depending on how they feel about this gen) to kick off the next generation.

The thing is, I think all the companies were successful enough to where they're likely not going to try and push out anything fast. Also the 360 and Ps3 are different enough from Wii that they still probably have quite a lot of homes that they can fill.

And on top of that.. I think Sony just might be cocky enough about their 10 year console life span not to rush things.. even if they're in last place. Sony is still selling Ps2's and PSPs.. So they might even have less incentive then Microsoft to move on.

So.. I think if things start in 2012, we're going to see a microsoft release first again. But more likely, I think it's going to start in 2013 with a Sony release first. I can't see Nintendo going first under any circumstance.

Re: Sony Motion Controller
 

The thing with MS/Sony, I guess is two fold. They are doing well, historically better than any second or third place console has ever done, but on the same hand, they will suffer a downswing soon enough (the same way the Wii is now), but what I was more talking about is Natal/Move, they really have to give it room to breath, but on the same hand, I would imagine that both companies have an emergency new console if the tech does not take off.

(That is one hell of a run on sentence so excuse me)

Now here's the thing, traditionally (And this generation is breaking all types of norms) the consoles are announced roughly a year/year and a half before their release which would mean we should start hearing about them at next e3.

If that is the case, it would only give Natal/Move a few months on market, before people start thinking that its dead tech. On the same hand, if Natal/Move takes off, does Sony/MS just hold their cards? What of developers who already started work on their launch titleS?


Now I agree with you about Nintendo not launching first, honestly it makes no sense for them, especially if Mario/Metroid/Zelda are this year, they won't have anything to launch with in 2011 so 2012 at earliest seems like their best bet. On the same hand, what do they do for the rest of the generation. They've exhausted Mario and Metroid for the most part. Zeldas aren't released that often. Smash Bros/Mario Kart seem like once a generation games. And then the rest of their franchises are a bit lower key. Sure they have stuff like The Last Story and Xenoblade, but no proof that will find an audience.

And they can't really depend on 3rd parties to fill any voids.

Re: Sony Motion Controller
 

Just had to post this because I love it:

Re: Sony Motion Controller
 

Damn, beat me to it.

Re: Sony Motion Controller
 

You wanted to draw the same thing? ;)

Re: Sony Motion Controller
 

didn't you?

Re: Sony Motion Controller
 

I just counted the other day (re: how many licks?). I got about 125. I say "about", because I didn't notice that I had gotten to the tootsie roll center until it was quite a bit revealed.

Re: Sony Motion Controller
 

Hm if that's an advertizement, we don't have it in Europe. I don't even think we have the brand here.

Re: Sony Motion Controller
 

For those who didn't grow up in America:

Re: Sony Motion Controller
 

It only takes like 1 lick then bite. You don't even have to bite hard on a tootsie pop. Blow Pops are much more complex in their lick-to-center ratio.

Tasty gum-center vs. nasty chocolatechewieick-center.

GUM WINS!

Re: Sony Motion Controller
 

Random bump as our friend, Pachter, gives us his thoughts

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/be...terview?page=1

Re: Sony Motion Controller
 

Who is Pachter, and why should his opinion have any weight? An honest question.

And Moogle, I always meant to reply to your Blow-Pop vs. Tootsie-Pop comment, and yes, I'm with you. I will always prefer a delicious, gum-center Blow-Pop over the nasty chocolatechewieick-center Tootsie-Pop. I don't know why tootsie rolls were every popular, let alone now.

EDIT: Well I just read the summary at top of the link, and it appears Pachter is a video game industry analyst that helps investors make the right decision. (Fat chance.) I obviously don't know his specific record, but all opinions I've read from industry analysts have been full of shit.

Move On.

Re: Sony Motion Controller
 

Is Pachter the glassed guy who's sometimes on GameTrailers?

Re: Sony Motion Controller
 

Pachter works for Wedbush Morgan Securities in their Entertainment Software, Entertainment Retail and Movies & Entertainment. Blurb:

http://www.wedbush.com/inside/Capita...fessionals.asp

Re: Sony Motion Controller
 

I like Pachter, he may not always be right, but he does offer some interesting takes on the industry.

Though this one just seems like a cheap cop-out.