Sony's Future?
 

Sony is undoubtably the king of console gaming today. They've announced a handheld multimedia player (games being its main focus) to enter that realm. I can't see how they CAN'T be a success in that area, if not the market leader in 5 years or less. And finally, we all know that the PS3 is coming probably in 2006. What do you see for Sony's future in the gaming industry?

PS2
The system will continue to outsell its competition until next gen. Franchies like Metal Gear, Final Fantasy, Grand Theft Auto and Gran Turismo will be the backbone through the years 2004 and 2005 that will lead a long list of millionselling software titles. Sony might buy out some development teams like Insomniac, Zipper and Lost Boys to strengthen the SCE brand. Over 100 million systems sold is my projection.

PSP
PlayStation Portable is released at a pricey $199 price tag, but software titles cost only $20-$25 each. After some tremendous sales, some movie studios decide to try some of their movies on the PSP media format. Record companies follow suit, and soon the PSP will be used as a handheld game, music and movie player. Nintendo realizes that their GBA system is outdated and before the end of 2005 announce and new handheld gaming system.

PS3
Unveiled at E3 2004, PS3 promises some awe-inspiring visuals, sound and hardware muscle. Developers stay close to Sony and begin developing for the system ASAP. System launches Fall 2006 with broadband, HDD, High Definition and Digital/Optical Sound support built in. Sony unveils a television brand that 'works best' with their Playstation system. After year one for PS3, Sony again sets a pace their competition can not keep up with

i saw this coming :p

and yes, sony is no doubt the King of console gaming...

:wtf:

:beerchug: :beerchug: :beerchug: :beerchug:

:roll:

I thought I'd go with the flow

I'm interested in the Ps3 for sure. Who wouldn't be.

I have my doubts about the PSP. Don't get me wrong. I'm happy that Sony is jumping into the business. If nothing else, the competition should get Nintendo jumping instead of just porting SNES games. But there are too many unknowns with the PSP, and what we do know doesn't make me think that it will definitely, without a doubt, become a success.

1. Current specs lead me to believe that the PSP will eat up power like there's no tomorrow. Yes, it has a rechargeable battery, but it'll have to be one heck of a battery to last long while the machine is procesing 3d graphics.

2. All that power and all those features are expensive. If Sony sells the PSP at the same price as the GBA SP, you can be sure that they will lose a lot of money on the hardware. That in itself doesn't make the business plan invalid, but it does make the venture rather risky.

3. You can be sure that development on the PSP will be more expensive than it is on the GBA. The mere fact that games will have to be 3D ensures that. Don't count on the PSP getting more third party support than the GBA just because it has Sony's backing.

4. While you're at it, don't count on Sony being able to leverage support for the PSP off of the Playstation brand either. If Sony said to (say) Konami, "Develop for the PSP or else we won't let you release Metal Gear on our console," Konami's response may very well be, "Screw you. We'll put Metal Gear on one of the other consoles and give it a big boost against your console instead." That's a very credible threat because after all, Sony's consoles live and die on third party support. They would not be doing well to alienate developers.

5. The PSP will probably make a decent mp3 player, but I don't think it will sell as a movie playing device. Its screen resolution is higher than the GBA's but still not as good as a TV's. Movies won't look too good on that thing. And if the screen size isn't very big anyway, people might prefer to just get a dedicated movie player.

6. If Sony launches the PSP in 2004, they will basically be taking on the GBA at the height of its power. There's a lot of shovelware on the GBA, but it also has a dozen triple A titles that I can think of off the top of my head. That doesn't seem to be the best timing to me.

These are not insurmountable problems. The PSP could be a success because, after all, there's a lot that we don't know about it. But declaring that the system can't fail is quite premature at this stage. There are lots of ways it can fail, and the biggest mistake anybody can make is underestimating the vise grip Nintendo has on the market. If a low resolution, black and white handheld can defeat other handhelds with higher resolution and color, why is it inconceivable that a 2d handheld could beat out a 3d one?

Sony doesn't have to negotiate with developers like your Metal Gear reference. Playstation 2 is, and will continue to be the most attractive platform if you want to sell units of software. If anyone would have to make those type of negotiations, it would be Microsoft or Nintendo (like they did with Squaresoft).

And I don't think Sony is trying to steal GBA's audience as much as it is to appeal to a whole other range of people. The Playstation brand took gaming much more mainstream...I believe the same goals will be set for their venture into the handheld market. For example, if there are 40 million people worldwide willing to buy a handheld gaming machine today, they want the release and progression of the PSP to reach a broader audience, and capture say 30 million others who like the ability to play 3D games, or music and movie playing capabilities.

Oh, and Xantar...do you know how much a quality portable DVD player costs? :eek:

At least he's optimistic :unsure:

I enjoy reading fiction :) :p

How in the world could preditions be fact? And if you're about to claim that you're an old ugly female psychic, save it :)

Fiction means fake... not fact...

yes, I know...my point was that how could predictions NOT be fiction

Ok, let me reword my phrase...

I love reading predictions that will never become accepted facts or theories among society. :)

Happy?

Easy, they are evaluated and the results of the evaluations prove them to be true, or in your wording, non-fiction.

Care to back your stance (or, add something insightful to the thread :eek: ) instead of popping in and out of the ground like a prairie dog?

Predictions can turn out to be fact. But when someone is making a prediction, it simply can NOT be fact until proven so.

I think you may have missed my point here. The Playstation 2 will undoubtedly continue to be the most attractive platform to develop for. But when it comes down to the PSP or the GBA, which do you think developers will choose? Well, the GBA has a vastly larger userbase and is cheaper to develop for. So how's Sony going to get games for the PSP? You might think that they'd negotiate with developers and pull a sort of reverse of Nintendo's tactic (whereas Nintendo said, "Develop for our console or we won't let you develop for our handheld," Sony might put it the other way around). All I'm saying is that tactic won't work.


Yes, I do. And if I'm not mistaken, the PSP will not be anything like a replacement for a DVD player of any kind. Aside from its relatively low resolution screen, it doesn't play DVD size disks.

I was planning on buying the GBA based on the fact that it is the only portable console (assuming that's not a conflict of terms). However, this PSP is stealing my attention! Movies, music, and games brought to you buy the makers of the Playstation? I'm in! $199 may sound like a bit, but I say it's quite worth it. A portable system/media center seems worth more to me than the Gamecube itself. I'd say the GBA will need to get on its feet to keep support.

Perfect Stu, I like your posts. In fact, I respect your opinions quite a bit. This topic is just another example of your strength of opinion. That is, I agree that Sony is king! I have believed it since I've first seen the Playstation at work. I, too, am looking forward to a bright future with the PSP, PS2, and PS3. *saves up some cash*

Let's just hope the PSP ports some classic PSX and Sega Saturn RPGs (If that's remotely possible).


And a smilie for the crowd: :arcade:

what did you mean by this ("Movies won't look too good on that thing. And if the screen size isn't very big anyway, people might prefer to just get a dedicated movie player"), then?

And about attracting developers, at the very least they'll have all of the dedicated 3D software. I would assume that a lot of companies would like to venture into making 3D handheld games for a handheld Playstation system. There's a reason why relatively nobody makes PSone or N64 games anymore, and it has nothing to do with the console's installed base. It's because the technology is outdated, and people want what's new. Just something to think about...

*btw, you're making some good points. nice to see some respectable discussion from clashing opinions :) (for whatever that's worth)

Thanks. I don't aim to please...but it's always nice to have a little positive effect on the forum ;)

If someone is making a prediction about something that has already been proven than a prediction can be a fact at the same time.

It's not a prediction if it's proven. For it to have been proven, it must have already occured. The only way to really prove something is to witness it first hand, or to do so with mathematics. You can't predict the past.

It's a prediction to one who has not yet proven it. It all depends on the person.

in any case, none of that applies to my predictions having 0% chance of being fact. let's get back to the topic...once again, Gamemaster...try adding something insightful to the topic. pretty please? :)

Grrr! You may have won this battle Stu, but you have yet to win the war! :mad:

*hops on board a helicopter and disappears into the horizon*

Let's put it this way:

We've been watching TV at 640 x 480 resolution for a long time now. That resolution is about as old as television itself. At this point, people will not accept anything less for watching movies and shows. Your average PSP owner will either buy a dedicated movie player or just give up on watching movies on the road altogether and do something else like play games or read a book. Very few people will put up with the lower resolution. I don't think that there is so much demand for portable movie watching that people will settle for subpar quality. Movie playback on the PSP will be a gimmick, not a selling point.

I think you are approaching this the wrong way here. Companies follow demand (or what they think will be in demand in the future). It's true, nobody makes Playstation or N64 games any more. But that has nothing to do with developers wanting the latest and the hottest. It's because nobody buys Playstation or N64 games any more.

Companies are not going to start developing for the PSP just because it's the latest thing with technology that makes the GBA somewhat outdated. If that were true, the Game Gear would have gotten a lot more support than the Game Boy and probably beaten it, too. They have to see the demand there first. For that, people have to buy the thing. But why would anybody buy it? Well, it will have to have games that people want. But how's that going to happen if the developers don't see a reason to develop for it? That's what Sony is up against.

I'm not saying that nobody will support the PSP. For one thing, I'm willing to bet money that Final Fantasy games will show up on it. The question is whether the PSP will get more developers than the GBA. At this point, with the GBA being a giant in the industry, I don't think that's going to happen. And as we know from the console industry, the platform with more developers wins.

Isn't that what Sony was up against with PSX and thing turned out fine with them somehow? :confused:

And with NES, I know it competed with the Master System, but I'm pretty sure it did pretty poorly... So then what was the reason for people to buy Genesis? Because I know that did pretty well against SNES...

PS2 initially sold mainly because of brand name and hype. Well, guess what? Sony's unveiling of the PSP has just started the hype and we have over a year before its release. Oh, and they were smart in keeping the Playstation brandname. What makes you so sure the PSP won't follow the same footsteps?

totally differnt markets tho.

unless, and i do say UNLESS, this PSP is really made into the portable media device. IE playing movies / music / and games. i would tend to agree with xantar.

The difference between the portables and what Sony did with PSX is image.

Sony came out with the PSX and it attraced the older audience. it looked 'cool' and was there for the 'cool' thing to have in many peoples opinion.

IF sony goes straight after the handheld market for games....... IMO its a kids market. kids are the ones that use the portables the most.

however if they do the same thing they did with the PSX, (which it looks like they are) and try to attract the older audience. ie making it the portable MEDIA device. or 'walkman of the 21st Century' then they have a very decent shot at it.
plus this isnt something that if it doesnt sell well they end it.... this will be a long term thing. and it will try to build up its user base from now thro the PS3's life.

Re: Sony's Future?
 

Well Stu, you asked.

PS2 will remain at the top, and continue to lose support throughout the years. Yes, I did say continue. PS2 doesn't have the name it had a year ago. It has sales, but it's losing it's support from fans and developers. That will continue, no big deal.

PSP will do decent in Japan, Wonderswan and Neo Geo decent. Won't touch GBA. Will do quite poorly, even worse in the US, if they decide to release it here.

PS3 will crash and burn. Sony blew it this generation, they won, but they blew it. Sony can hype all they want, but remember what happened last time, they didn't deliver. Developers won't stand by and let it happen again, gamers won't be so quick to jump on the sony bandwagon. There's a new hardware leader in town, we call it Xbox. Xbox delivers the best hardware by far, and you know what? Gamers will expect it again next generation, just like they had high hopes for Sony this generation. Xbox will get the 3rd party support, Xbox will get the graphic junkies, and Xbox will get the Sony crowd. Nintendo will keep it's large following, and likely pick up quite a few Xbox and Sony fans along the way if they can prove themselves hardwarewise beforehand. Where does that leave Sony? 3rd. Dead last. Why? Because developers will move on, PS2 was way too difficult to develop for at its release last time. They had to stick around, PS2 had tens of millions of owners already. But they can move on now. Gamers will move on, Xbox and Gamecube are getting many more of the big titles already, and that will continue towards the release of these systems. Sony won this generation because they were successful getting a lot of people to buy the console very quickly. Next generation, don't expect people to forget the systems many downfalls.

yea. sony won cuz they had a lot of people buy it very quickly..... Not because they did and continue to bash the hell out of every other console in sales month after month.

the nintendo following you speak of is falling apart. its obvious. They're going the way of Sega. Whats that i hear. nintendo wants to get thier next console out before the others do? hmmmm, seen that before... now who was it who tried that in the same position....

PS2 has by far the best games. they continue to get all the support they need. and the playstation name is stronger then it has been before.

and your right a that xbox fans expect the best graphics... i think that will bite them next gen. cuz i dont see them having a big of lead in graphics. Sony proved this gen they can hang with the big boys in terms of graphics. and beat them with thier 'inferior' machine.

Re: Re: Sony's Future?
 

Could you please provide some kind of information that shows that they're losing support from developers and especially fans? You can't always pull information out of your ass...

Care to explain why?

Nice predictions...but I see them as more of a pipedream than a future reality.

Ken Kuturagi stated at today's PSX Unveiling that all the big 3rd party developers have signed up to support the PSP...

Information is from a couple inside sources...I would take it as nothing but fact.

Ya, most signed up for Neo Geo Pocket and Wonderswan too. Hell, a lot of them signed up for the N-gauge. Deosn't mean much.

Interesig thread...

on PSP:

people say developers won't come because GBA has a bigger user base? If that's true why are any developers even touching GCN or Xbox right now? What made develpers even try and devlop for DC? (with Psx and N64 moving strong at the same time)

The fact is you just can't count it out, Xantar... Developers will come JUST because Sony makes it, do you realy think they give a damn that Nintendo is killing everything off right now?

Yes, it may be a different market, but it's still the same industry. Developers will come, until PSP fails. No developer is going to label Sony as a failure here until it acctually fails, that's why it will get support no matter how stupid it looks on paper. (just like DC, GCN, and Xbox did from launch.

on Ps3:

Until rockstar (well, just GTA) leaves and Sqare slashes support, I doubt it will fail. People say ony dropped the ball this generation, but who can say they don't make some type of last second save next gen? Almost like N64 with a CD and easy development would have meant Nintendo remaining a powerhouse, Sony could manage to release the most powerful hardware with the easiest development and the best pricing next time.

It sill can be done, Ps3 doesn't have to have all the same issues Ps2 had... it could even manage to be what Xbox was to this gen (hardware wise), legitamently the best all-around hardware.

what I find interesting is that Sony 'really messed up' this gen and still handed the competition its ass like we've never seen since maybe NES in the console industry. I'd hate to be Nintendo and Microsoft when Sony makes the right moves :eek:

And I'm not. I'm simply pointing out that predicting that it's too early to declare that it will be a success. Making any judgment about its future would be premature right now. Since Stu started off the thread saying that he couldn't see how the PSP could fail, I made a post pointing out ways that it could. Just so we're clear on that.

indeed... I believe GBA games can be written in c++, which was intended to make GBA much easier to develop for than previous Game Boy systems.... I think Sony trying to leverage against a developer-friendly system with a well established user base and a vast library of games ( reverse compatability was a major factor in PS2's advantage over GCN and Xbox.)

No it wasn't

And anyway, easy development is no longer an advantage in the game market... and Sony proved this. All GCN and Xbox's easy development got them was some faster ports of Ps2 games. Ok, Easy development is an advantage, only if you are #1, but when you are #1 hard development can help too. :p

GBA of course, is #1, so easy development will help ;). But the hardware differences will make up for this, I mean, GBA may not even be close as powerful, so some developers will be able to do stuff on PSP that simply can't be done on GBA.

My question is, if PSP releases, and it outsells GBA month to mont for a year, and it's userbase gets up around 2-5 million, what should Nintendo do? I mean, if they release a new console thier userbase will no longer be a factor.... and how would they have to go about competing with PSP? Make it like PSP just better in every way... or make it like a newer better GBA and keep the carts. Or, just ignore that PSP is winning and keep GBA alive longer?

Re: Sony's Future?
 

My Take:

PS2
The PS2 will continue to rank #1 in sales and games until 2005, at which point Microsoft and Nintendo will launch new consoles, PS2 will end the "Current" console war as the victor, while titles ofr this system begin to dwindle in light fo the Anouncemnt for the PS3 which will be delayed a month after being announced, Nintendo Style (N64 had Numerous delays)..

PSP
PlayStation Portable is released at a pricey $199 price tag, but software titles cost only $20-$25 each. However this will not deter Game Boy fans due to the extensive Library of GB/GBC/GBA games who already have poretables, like Sony's last stab at a portable sysem and other "GB Killers" this unit will syphon off a few GBA players who will soon miss thier extensive library of games and return to NIntendo, but not ebfore E3 2004 where Nintendo Announces the Next-Gen GB andgives the system fresh blood again, killin gthe PSP, or at the very least, putting it on Life support" until people forget what it was, just like they id BanDai's WOnderswan Color an Sega's gamegear, both Superior systems that didn't stand a chance against the GBA

PS3
Unveiled at E3 2005, PS3 promises everything you could dream of, but, like NIntendo's N64 falls short in every way. The system will see delays and the "Cell-Chip" won't work right, by the time it's released in 2007 the hype will be over and Nintendo and Microsoft will ahve two New Systems on the Market, SOny will now have made the same mistake NIntendo adn Sega made out of cockiness abut being #1, they'll make up for it, or at least try, but by the time Console war 9 ends adn console war 10 begins SOny will be in third place, the way Microsfot (Or Nintendo depending on the sales charts of the week) is now. However SOny will learn and attempt to rcover fromt his DIsaster with the PS4 while the GC 3 and XBX3 are announced, the PS3 will, sadly, be the amke or break system, justa s the N64 and Saturn were for Nintendo, if you apss the third system hurlte you're safe, SOny will pass but where they stand aftwerwards will remaint o be seen [/b][/quote]

omg... come on Cyrax.

First of all Ps3 won't use the Cell chip, so it won't have problems with it. Also, why would Sony make the same mistakes as Nintendo and Sega? Sony already made more than enough mistakes with Ps2, and by god's grace still won. Unlike Sega with Saturn, and Nintendo with N64, Sony's mistake system didn't make them fall behind. Next gen I'm sure Sony won't make another mistake filled system.

As for your little PSP rant, you said Wonderswan Color was a superior system to GBA??? LOL, nothing was better about wonderswan, except it's perfect name ;). Also, Sony is a bigger name to back a handheld console than any of Nintendo's previous contenders.

I don't think the PSP will fare very well against GBA, Optical discs are excellent for console games, but i think the GBA cartridge is definitely superior for portable systems, Battery life aside, protecting games from scratches when carrying them around would be a real pain, also cartidges don't have to worry about spin-up/seek time and have minimal loading time ( I'ts always great to sit around waiting to load... and not know that the PS2 has crashed) [I know my tense is all screwed up... I'm tired and i need to go to bed so i don't care about that]

The UMD discs are covered with a plastic casing. Read up...