Microsoft could also unveil new services at the PS3 launch. Something like a new feature in Xbox Live or something. There's nothing that can stop the PS3 steamroller, but Halo 3 isn't necessarily the only or the best countermove Microsoft has. If nothing else, I'm really not sure how excited people will get about yet another Halo game just two years after the last one unless it adds something
really new.
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And from recent rumors that PS3 may launch much earlier then expected, Halo3 might not even be close to being done in time. so it wouldnt matter anyway.
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Did you see the end of Halo 2? Since when did a game being unfinished prevent Microsoft from releasing it?