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Originally Posted by Bond
Bioshock 2 and Mass Effect 2 perhaps? Also, maybe the impending release of FFXIII.
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Historical it wouldn't make sense in the context of the generation. Not saying that it couldn't be either, but Bioshock and Mass Effect 2 are both sequels to games that already exist on the console, and really don't see why they would sell.. especially since both games are rather story heavy and rely on their previous incarnation.
Also, FF 13 seems like the same deal, I wouldn't expect so many people to buy it 2 weeks in advance, but honestly your theories are about as sound as any I could come up with.
Sony and Nintendo are both claiming limited supply for their low sales, we shall see in March/April if it is or if this is a developing pattern.