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Originally Posted by manasecret
This is a question that I think affects the debate.
When do people here predict the next consoles will start coming out?
I hear that Sony and MS are saying another five years or some such long time, but rumor is that the new Wii will come out 2012.
I think if Wii does come out in 2012, Sony and MS will be forced to come out with something soon after, no later that 2013 (or a year later).
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I don't want to talk Natal too much, because we haven't really seen working software yet, but if what I'm hearing is true, its nothing more than an attempt to capture the casual audience.
The simple fact is both of these devices are simple stop gaps to prolong the normal duration of this generation. I mean if you think about it, the 360 would be 5 this year and that's generally when a new console would be expected to debut, but as I've stated in the past, all 3 companies are in a position where it makes no sense to jump ahead.
Wii- Nintendo has captured an audience they have never seen before, and most be careful with their next console. They can't afford to make it too expensive, but on the same hand must have it compete on a technical level and offer something that makes a Wii owner want to upgrade.
360- The 360 has a stellar line-up and the best 3rd party support of all the consoles. MS is not guaranteed the same type of success at the start of the next gen especially...
Ps3- Sony and its developers are finally coming to terms with the hardware, not only are they making great looking games, but original games at that. They are finally picking up momentum, and on a global basis either outsells or is pretty damn close to the Xbox.
My guess is that after the motion control stop gap ends, all companies will be ready to roll with something in 2012.
Also quote from Sega PR on Natal/Move
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I think Natal and the Sony Motion Controller allow us to do things that are more about multi, party gaming.
In a way, it's a move away potentially from the core. That's what we're actually getting good at. Mario & Sonic is a multi-party game - but it's actually good fun. Microsoft and Sony are telling us that actually, we don't have to spend $20 million to get things consumers like, because you can approach things with games that are repetitive fun - easy to pick up and pass around. That's where we could either use old Sega IP or come up with new ideas.
The challenge for both first parties is to make sure the installed base of these devices is as high as they've claimed it will be.
If you look at how many Xbox 360s or PS3s there in Europe - let's say 12 million of each - if they get an attached rated of 12-and-a-half per cent with these [motion] devices, that's 2.5 million consumers for us to go after. If ten per cent of those buy our games, that's 250,000. How much money can you realistically spend on development for that audience?
But Microsoft and Sony are talking very big numbers. If they can achieve that, it will make these devices very viable. Could sales of Natal hit 50 per cent of those current installed base? We think the price point will be very attractive. 360 has a long way to go with a lot more hardware - so, for example, if they were to bundle Natal, it's a home run if they can afford to do that. I would imagine both Microsoft and Sony are going to spend big development money to make these devices very attractive.
We'll certainly be supporting both. We have several games on both [move] and Natal that you will see from around the end of this year and into 2011.
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