Quote:
Originally Posted by Professor S
Back to the Hurricane Sandy vs Nate Silver argument: Hurricane Sandy hit on the 29th and 30th. Looking at the chart below, it correlates almost to the day that political fortunes switched. Switch the chart to 30 or 14 days to see the trend.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html
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Yeah, but you're using RCP's averaging numbers, which obviously weren't as correct as Silver's...and I mean that they don't necessarily explain all of it...538 actually has a few more words that go into the details of the polls. I can't take time to find it right now, but if you go to the 538 archives, you can see Silver talking about Romney's momentum ending weeks ago. I'm not sure why you'd keep citing RCP when they weren't as accurate as
The Princeton Election Consortium, 538, or this blog
http://votamatic.org/election-day-fo...32-romney-206/
I guess here's an example from Sam Wang's site. Basically after the 2nd debate, all the momentum is in Obama's favor. That's well before Sandy.
EDIT: Here is Silver's post regarding Mitt Romney's momentum, dated 10/24.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...-have-stopped/