I have my doubts about the PSP. Don't get me wrong. I'm happy that Sony is jumping into the business. If nothing else, the competition should get Nintendo jumping instead of just porting SNES games. But there are too many unknowns with the PSP, and what we do know doesn't make me think that it will definitely, without a doubt, become a success.
1. Current specs lead me to believe that the PSP will eat up power like there's no tomorrow. Yes, it has a rechargeable battery, but it'll have to be one heck of a battery to last long while the machine is procesing 3d graphics.
2. All that power and all those features are expensive. If Sony sells the PSP at the same price as the GBA SP, you can be sure that they will lose a lot of money on the hardware. That in itself doesn't make the business plan invalid, but it does make the venture rather risky.
3. You can be sure that development on the PSP will be more expensive than it is on the GBA. The mere fact that games will have to be 3D ensures that. Don't count on the PSP getting more third party support than the GBA just because it has Sony's backing.
4. While you're at it, don't count on Sony being able to leverage support for the PSP off of the Playstation brand either. If Sony said to (say) Konami, "Develop for the PSP or else we won't let you release Metal Gear on our console," Konami's response may very well be, "Screw you. We'll put Metal Gear on one of the other consoles and give it a big boost against your console instead." That's a very credible threat because after all, Sony's consoles live and die on third party support. They would not be doing well to alienate developers.
5. The PSP will probably make a decent mp3 player, but I don't think it will sell as a movie playing device. Its screen resolution is higher than the GBA's but still not as good as a TV's. Movies won't look too good on that thing. And if the screen size isn't very big anyway, people might prefer to just get a dedicated movie player.
6. If Sony launches the PSP in 2004, they will basically be taking on the GBA at the height of its power. There's a lot of shovelware on the GBA, but it also has a dozen triple A titles that I can think of off the top of my head. That doesn't seem to be the best timing to me.
These are not insurmountable problems. The PSP could be a success because, after all, there's a lot that we don't know about it. But declaring that the system can't fail is quite premature at this stage. There are lots of ways it can fail, and the biggest mistake anybody can make is underestimating the vise grip Nintendo has on the market. If a low resolution, black and white handheld can defeat other handhelds with higher resolution and color, why is it inconceivable that a 2d handheld could beat out a 3d one?
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