Alright, Gekko, let me kill the Sony comparision right now... Sony came in at a time when Nintendo and Sega screwed up BADLY. That's why it was so easy for them to step in. Also, Sony is Japan based, so people out there accepted them faster than they would ever accept Xbox.
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Null is right. Microsoft has no userbase come Xbox 2. If that were the case, Nintendo would have every NES, SNES, Game Boy and N64 owner jumping on board Gamecube, but they don't.
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I never said everybody who owns an Xbox would go out and buy an Xbox 2, did I?
Also, Nintendo has a mind share.. built up by it's previous consoles. They don't have to start from 0 like you think... The ONLY thing keeping Nintendo alive today is it's brand recognition.
Why is it going down? Well, let's think... there is a long list of popular games lost in the transition from SNES to N64, and there is a long list of games lost in the transition from N64 to GCN. There is also a large list of popular games gained... but like they say, it's easier to burn a bridge than to build one.
Sony successfully gave a hardcore fan of Psx every reason to buy a Ps2, that's why Ps2 is so successful. Nintendo didn't give every hardcore fan of SNES a reason to buy a N64.. and they didn't give every hardcore fan of N64 to buy a GCN.
Even then, some hardcore 64 fans would buy GCN anyway based off of pure expectations. Microsoft is building a relationship with it's fans... Just like Sony built... and just like Nintendo built. Nintendo is falling because they are losing games, and when you lose games on a console that is only capible of that function, you lose fans. You make newer great games, you gain a solid foundation of fans. Nintendo is doing both at the same time, and thier losses are over-powering thier gains. I mean, hell, are they going to sell retro and the rights to Metriod to MS just because there game didn't sell well?
Also, I'm not assuming thier plan will work, but I know for a fact that as long at thier systems sell better and better with each gen, they will keep throwing money away. That is thier plan, and it is fact... Your userbase will grow if you don't burn bridges, I have seen nothing to prove otherwise.
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if thier losing money on every console sold.... what exactly is it they are going to do when they believe they have the correct 'userbase' ? make a cheaper system, or sell it for a whole lot more ?
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Well, when they get a mind share like Nintendo's, some zombies who will buy thier top franchises every year... they won't have to spend as much money will they? Imagine if they made a console like Xbox every generation, didn't have to buy off new developers, didn't have to market half as hard, and didn't have to pay for developers to support them initally because developers will already trust it's sales, and even better, don't have to worry about creating this new online gaming service and taking a huge hit again to get fans to come, and finally, didn't have to even worry about how it's going to do in Japan...
They could still release a beast like Xbox and manage to profit... But right now they have to go the extra mile to get "Xbox" out there. Once they have the mind share they can advertize at the same level as sony and cut a hell of a lot of spending for marketing and developers.
I mean, they could always go cheap like Nitendo when they get big enough... and profit even more, but I think they would be more like Sony if things go to plan.
But that's the thing, things have to go to plan... MS is planning for the long run, not the short term, and to stay in a long time you have to have a big Mind share with certain games, ask Nintendo.
The reason I see Nintendo dying before Microsoft is because Nintendo is a independent game company, and like Sega, they can't exactly afford to have any huge mistakes. MS could live through some giant mistakes in the future, and the userbase would be thier incentive to keep going... and like I said earlier in the thread.. if Xbox 2 sells less than Xbox, MS is a sure thing to drop out because they won't achive thier goal of having enough solid fans to keep them alive.