Bobcat, RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!

[Crash]

Monica again threatens Australia, now very strong Category 5
April 23, 2006 - 11:45 PM
This situation remains dire along the north coast of Australia. It is hard to imagine a worse situation in this area as Australian cyclones almost never reach this strength. Monica is currently much stronger than 1974's Cyclone Tracy which is the benchmark storm for Australia. As far as I can tell, Monica may be the most intense cyclone to ever impact the region or even Australia. However, records are hard to find. After striking Queensland a few days ago, Monica has crossed Gulf of Carpentaria and is strafing the coast of the Northern Territory. All of this comes as part of a recent string of cyclone strikes across the country. The latest advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center lists Monica as a category 5 cyclone with sustained wind of 155 knots (178 mph) and a central pressure of 879 mb. This is an incredibly powerful cylone that actually is stronger than Hurrican Wilma (the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic).

Monica recently passed over Australia's Wessel Islands. At 879 mb, Monica is stronger than the dreaded hurricanes Wilma, Katrina and Rita or any other Atlantic hurricane ever were, never mind at landfall. The symmetry seen is Monica is flawless and it is rare to every see a tropical system look so well-defined. For reference, average sea-level pressure is 1013.25 mb and the lowest pressure ever recorded was 870 mb in Typhoon Tip, but I will mention this again later.


View infrared satellite image


View visible satellite image

The latest advisory from the Darwin office of the Bureau of Meteorology lists the details below. Please note that their pressure seems erroneously high. However, they are indicating wind gusts up to 350 km/hr (218 mph)!


Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 10 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.4 degrees South 135.2 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 11 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 350 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 915 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING continues between CAPE WESSEL and DALY RIVER MOUTH, including DARWIN, TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG PENINSULA and JABIRU. A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest to PORT KEATS.



View threat map

On the other side from the Bureau of Meteorology, satellite based intensity estimates rank Monica as being much stronger than advisories indicate. If the satellite estimates are true, Monica has become the most intense storm ever recorded in the entire world. However, in this area the estimates tend to be about 10 mb too strong. While not the strongest storm ever recorded, it certainly beats anything ever seen in the Atlantic.


Date : 24 APR 2006 Time : 003300 UTC
Lat : 11:27:25 S Lon : 135:04:23 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.0 / 868.5mb/170.0kt (196 mph)

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +10.5mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20.0km


Monica is now impacting the Northern and will continue to ride along the coast. The Wessel Islands have already borne the brunt of the cyclone.

220 MPH winds... HOLY CRAP!