Neo's expert electoral college predictions

[Neo]

Do you believe these new zogby polls that say Kerry has a 4 point lead in Colorado and Bush has a 5 point lead in New Mexico? Those seem highly unlikely. I also think the Gallup polls are screwed up in general. It's the only poll which gives Bush a significant lead. All the others are statistical ties. I remember in 2000 Gallup said Bush was way ahead but Gore ended up winning the popular vote. Phone polling methodology leaves a lot to be desired. One criticism is that cell phone users cannot be polled. Most cell users are young people and young people favor Kerry.

I now believe that Kerry will win all three of the important states, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio. The 2:1 undecided voter model along with the young vote should break the ties in Ohio and Florida. Even if the undecideds break 3:2 it should be enough.

Florida is really the key for Kerry. Without it he has to win Ohio, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, or he has to win Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and either Minnesota or Wisconsin.