First Presidential Debate

[The Germanator]

Originally Posted by Professor S

One area of concern for the Obama campaign is that he isn't above 50% in any major poll. Also, many of the polls are using 2008 turnout models, and it's yet to be seen if 2012 will mirror 2008 in terms of minority and youth voting.

Again, are you talking national polls? Nate Silver just posted about how Obama is leading in 19/20 of swing state polls that came out today...If he wins just a few of those (especially Ohio), it's simple he'll win...And the polls are especially strong in Ohio.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ically-biased/

Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium is even more bullish on Obama, basically giving him a 98% chance to win. He was even more accurate than Silver last election.

http://election.princeton.edu/