Mafia Round 3 – The Tide of Fate Turns

[Vampyr]

Originally Posted by jeepnut

They didn't kill him the first round because the guardian was still alive and they didn't want to waste a kill. And I'm betting they didn't kill him the second round because they figured we would do it for them. I would be willing to bet that if he's not winning the vote by the end of this round, they kill him. Honestly, it makes sense to keep him alive since much of the group doesn't trust him and it is consuming all of our attention.

It's entirely possible that he's been fooling us, but I don't think so. I would have expected the real seer to make contact with someone by now especially since they should have found someone they can trust through their seer abilities.

No, our real enemy right now is the one leading this voting effort.

!vote BreakaBone

Wait a minute, what? They don't know who the people with special powers are...the idea that they didn't kill the seer in order to kill the guardian doesn't make any sense.

!retract Dylflon for now

[Vampyr]

After pondering for a few seconds, I have decided Jeepnut is trying to protect Dylflon with weird theories.

!vote Dylflon

[jeepnut]

Originally Posted by Vampyr

Wait a minute, what? They don't know who the people with special powers are...the idea that they didn't kill the seer in order to kill the guardian doesn't make any sense.

!retract Dylflon for now

I never said that.

I said that they didn't kill Dylflon because he had publically asked the Guardian to protect him and thus knew that an attack on Dylflon would likely be a waste.

I doubt they knew who the guardian was unless they had someone in contact with him. My assumption is that killing the guardian was a lucky guess.

[BlueFire]

For the BaB vote, I need to see some evidence or reasoning before casting my vote for him right now. True, I voted for him last round, but as I read the posts this round, I'm finding the sudden collective movement to eliminate BaB very suspicious (especially due to the lack of actual reasoning).

Originally, I was going to vote for Angrist since he seems so convinced that Dylflon should be killed off this round (and I'm almost sure if we vote him, we're going to kick ourselves in the ass).

But then I saw jeepnut starting the BaB movement:

Originally Posted by jeepnut

They didn't kill him the first round because the guardian was still alive and they didn't want to waste a kill. And I'm betting they didn't kill him the second round because they figured we would do it for them. I would be willing to bet that if he's not winning the vote by the end of this round, they kill him. Honestly, it makes sense to keep him alive since much of the group doesn't trust him and it is consuming all of our attention.

It's entirely possible that he's been fooling us, but I don't think so. I would have expected the real seer to make contact with someone by now especially since they should have found someone they can trust through their seer abilities.

No, our real enemy right now is the one leading this voting effort.

!vote BreakaBone

Your theory sounds convincing, but nothing has led me to believe that BaB is evil. Not even Ric's rallying last round. I declare that BaB defends himself here and now before we go ahead and lose another valuable member to the mafia.

But before I end this post, I'm going to cast the vote for "the one leading this voting effort:"

!vote jeepnut

EDIT: BaB just posted his defense.. reading it now
EDIT 2: My vote stays.. for now.

[Vampyr]

We have an interesting scenario here. I agree that it is suspicious that Jeepnut suddenly decided to attack BaB.

Here's what I'm wondering:

If Jeepnut is in the Mafia, then he would know if Dylflon is or is not. If Dylflon is not in the Mafia, why would he risk himself to go after BaB? He wouldn't, he would let this round be an easy out for the mafia to get someone that everyone already suspects.

If Dylflon is in the Mafia, and Jeepnut is as well, then it makes sense to at least try to save him.

On the other hand, Jeepnut could not be in the mafia, and he just believes in Dylflon. However, his reasoning was a little weird, especially BaB didn't really start the movement to oust Dylflon, so it seems like he is reaching for a reason to go after BaB, and is basing his choice because Ric may have garnered suspicion for him already.

So all in all, I think Dyl and Jeepnut look the most suspicious here. We should probably vote one out, but I would encourage the vigilante to NOT kill the other one. This way if we end up being wrong about one, we probably won't be wrong about both. If we are right about Dylflon though, then it may be safe to vote Jeepnut off, since it would be pretty obvious that he was trying to save him this round. But, if we are wrong about Dylflon, then it will be obvious that Jeepnut is -not- in the Mafia, since he was trying to save him.

And even if Dylflon really is the seer, that is a useless power since it requires us to trust him, which we obviously don't.

[Teuthida]

Fine fine. Eh, I'll probably just end up voting for Swan again. R2D2 gets on my nerves.

[Teuthida]

My bad, was just reviewing round 2 and you both voted for Combine. I need to pay more attention.

And now have a list of probable definite goodies in order of probable definiteness...if that makes sense.

[Dylflon]

Revealing a normal good special doesn't help the mafia, since they need to track down the specials. But it could let you know one person not to vote for.


I guess the mafia would kill that person once the good specials are dead.

And as for networking, it will be near impossible once I'm dead.

[tornadothrasher]

There will be no bargain, young Jedi. I shall enjoy watching you die.

[Angrist]

Hm now I'm starting to doubt. We can always kill off Dylflon later, it's not like he's the last mafia.

But if he's right, we're killing off the Seer.

Does anyone feel like coming up with alternative theories and targets?

[Bube]

I agree with you Angrist. I'm going to go with the BaB theory this turn, but I've got a few other ideas as well. I'll see how this round turns out, and reveal a different theory on the next one. For now, !vote BaB

[Fyacin]

There is really no reason to vote Dylf, even if he is mafia. I mean, if he is mafia, then he has a few cohorts and killing him now will only make us feel better. However, if he's not, we should leave him alive beacuse he might just be our seer.
Break A Bone sounds suspicious.
!vote break a bone

[The Germanator]

!retract Dylflon

!vote BreakaBone

The right way to go, I think this is.

[Nighthawk]

this thing is getting pretty confusing...