2012 Presidential Election Thread

[Professor S]

Originally Posted by Typhoid

Not sure where else to put this.
But the end of Obama's 'fuck you, I won, motherfucker' (I just like to imagine that's what he referred to it as in his own mind) speech was probably one of the best bits of Presidential Speeching I've seen. He was so legitimately passionate about what he was saying, and it completely showed. Hopefully the almost half of people who didn't vote for him watched that, and saw what was clearly there.

Would you like to swap Presidents/Prime Ministers?

[Bond]

Well, I was wrong. No shame in making a prediction (hopefully). I was anticipating a +2-3 D advantage, but it appears as though it was indeed the +6 D advantage as predicted by Nate Silver and Obama's campaign manager (I forget his name).

I'm surprised. But it looks as though the Obama ground game was extremely effective at courting minorities (garnering ~72% of the Hispanic vote and ~91% of the black vote) and young people. Those figures are difficult to overcome when minorities encompass 28% of the electorate. I'd argue this is why the Republican party needs to liberalize its immigration and social platform to widen the tent, but I'll digress.

Anyway, I thought I saw a comment about my prediction being crazy, but I can't find it anymore. Like I said in the first paragraph, it was based on my idea of the electorate composition and not any partisan feeling.

Truth be told, Republicans like Prof and I are in the minority in the GOP these days (arguably the extreme minority). The party needs to promote its fiscal conservatism and silence its social conservatism. I think most Americans remain fiscally conservative and socially liberal -- it's time to pivot to them.

[Jason1]

Originally Posted by Bond

Anyway, I thought I saw a comment about my prediction being crazy, but I can't find it anymore. Like I said in the first paragraph, it was based on my idea of the electorate composition and not any partisan feeling.

Yea, that was me. Its earlier in this thread.

Anyways, I somewhat disagree with the notion that the republicans will be as "blocking" if you will of the democrats plans. I feel if they are as bi-partisan as they were the last 4 years it will really come back and backfire on them.

The way I see it, the country has again CLEARLY spoken and said "this is the person we want to lead our country, and we want him and his ideas to be continued." Obama will be much more agressive this time around because he dosent have another election to win. Republicans will be the ones who end up looking stupid, not democrats, if this bi partisanship continues.

In my person opinion without some DRASTIC changes in the Republican party's point of views, they will have a very hard time ever winning another election EVER again. This country is becoming more and more minority and poorer and this obviously is bad for the Republicans. Republicans are dying off, younger democrats are not. More and more minorities reaching legal voting age. I realise this is a huge generalization, but look how much the younger vote, especially minorities, sways democrat.

And for good reason. I can kinda see why a rich person might like Romneys views, but pretty much everyone else? Who knows. Personally I dont get why a median income or poor person would ever vote republican inless they change drastically, but thats just me.

[Typhoid]

Originally Posted by Professor S

Would you like to swap Presidents/Prime Ministers?

Fuck no.
30 million people and our dollar is on par if not half-of-a-half-of-a cent above yours.
I hate how conservatively conservative that guy his, but I'll stick with Harper, thanks - illusion of a "strong" economy or not.
He might not know how or when to convey tone in his speeches, and he might have the emotional range of Keanu Reeves doped up on pills, and he may have a Lego-man haircut - but damnit, the guy can run (half of) a country pretty well.

[Fox 6]

Originally Posted by Professor S

Would you like to swap Presidents/Prime Ministers?

He is even more left of Barrack. All of the mainstream political parties in Canada are.

Aside from the joking, I think Americans are seeing the social benefits of moderation and voted as such. It seems that there is a fragmentation developing in the conservative camps, and hopefully this will make them take more liberal stances on things like immigration. On another note, Those Teas Party whack jobs give me the willies.

[TheGame]

That's all she wrote. I still think Obama will get 300, but we'll see lol

[Fox 6]

Somewhere Clint Eastwood is shooting a chair full of .44s

[TheGame]

So Obama broke 300 before even getting florida lol. Also won the popular vote.

Anyone who paid attention to the polls saw this coming. It's sad that the media's spin on things made it seem like it would be so much closer. Heck even last night CBS and Fox were quick to say "Obama lost the popular vote" like it was already over. I think this election more then any other before shows the conspiracy by the media to get more people worked up about the election to help ratings.

[Professor S]

In end end, nothing has changed. Republican controlled Congress, a Dem controlled Senate, and a Pres. re-elected without the mandate he needed to put Republican lawmakers on their heels. I hope everyone liked the last two years, because we're about to get more of the same.

Congrats?

[TheGame]

Originally Posted by Professor S

In end end, nothing has changed. Republican controlled Congress, a Dem controlled Senate, and a Pres. re-elected without the mandate he needed to put Republican lawmakers on their heels. I hope everyone liked the last two years, because we're about to get more of the same.

Congrats?

Time for republicans to change their strategy and get out of that radical far right wing mentality. If we get more of the same, it's just going to hurt the republicans more come next election.

[Vampyr]

Also I think Germanator won the prediction contest.

[Teuthida]

I'll take more of the same over certainly worse.

http://isnatesilverawitch.com/

[Professor S]

In the end I think it was less Nate Silver's brilliance, and more turn out and Sandy ending Romney's momentum and the optics bringing the undecided vote to Pres. Obama.

There is one thing Nate's models can't predict, that is turn out, and if this election proves anything it is that young people are fully engaged and eager to vote. 2008 was not an anomaly. If Republicans want to be able to compete in the future, they are going to have to move towards Bond and I, offering visions of economic AND SOCIAL freedom, and not simply economic freedom. The single woman and Latino vote killed them this year, while social conservatives are a base on the verge of election irrelevancy. Somehow I think they're try and tack farther right, though... definition of insanity and all...

[The Germanator]

Originally Posted by Professor S

In the end I think it was less Nate Silver's brilliance, and more turn out and Sandy ending Romney's momentum and the optics bringing the undecided vote to Pres. Obama.

There is one thing Nate's models can't predict, that is turn out, and if this election proves anything it is that young people are fully engaged and eager to vote. 2008 was not an anomaly. If Republicans want to be able to compete in the future, they are going to have to move towards Bond and I, offering visions of economic AND SOCIAL freedom, and not simply economic freedom. The single woman and Latino vote killed them this year, while social conservatives are a base on the verge of election irrelevancy. Somehow I think they're try and tack farther right, though... definition of insanity and all...

Sandy did not end Romney's "Romentum". It had already ended. Romney peaked with the week following the Denver debate and was still losing. It was a lot closer at that point, but Obama made back whatever he lost in the three weeks following. Sandy was politically helpful for Obama as callous as it sounds, but the cake was already in the oven.

And I guess I was too conservative in my predictions...I thought Romney might flip more than just NC and Indiana.

On another note: It's pretty awesome news that Maine, Maryland, and Washington state voted on pro-gay marriage referendums. Makes me feel better about things. Also that both Aiken and Mourdock lost after their ridiculous rape comments...

Also: I don't smoke marijuana, but congrats to Colorado and Washington for passing laws for recreational use. We'll see what the Federal government does, but I feel like that's a step in the right direction.