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E³ Prediction Contest: Recap/Guide
Old 05-11-2002, 12:35 AM   #1
D-realJos
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Arrow E³ Prediction Contest: Recap/Guide

Woo hoo! It's that time again... the time where the super powers( S, MS, N) send their mechs(PS, XB, GC) to war. A fierce battle will be fought in hopes to claim the hearts and minds of the media... more specifically, of the gamers!

With so much exciting events/moments that will take place, I bet you're swimming in a pool of anticipation. Well, why not take that anticipation to the next level? Prediction!


You'll be able to enter fun and friendly prediction-based contest, made possible by the advent and outcome of E³.

In this thread, I hope to cover everything you'll need to know about the official contest. Don't worry, even if you don't read this topic you shouldn't have any problems joining the contest, as it's very easy to play along. Still, I've made some changes and enhancements that everyone should be aware of--even if you've played before. That said, at least give everything below a quick scan. (In fact, I made it as short as possible)

------------------------------------------------------

Goal Of Contest:
Earn as many point as you can by answering prediction questions with various "responses." (Then, gloat about being the "King of predictions").

Point of Contest:
To take your knowledge and awareness of all game-related information happening around you "recently" and throw it back at you in a contest where luck, reasoning, and your deepest intuitions will see you through. It's also quite fun.

Entering the Contest:
You'll be charged 70 dblns as an entry fee(you'll have a chance to win some) . If you are short on cash but want too participate, then contact a mod or webmaster to see what can be done about your situation. The thread will be open days prior to E³, so you'll have enough time to submit your replies/entries. (not sure which board it will be on, but you'll all know when the time comes).

How to play:
Simple, just choose a specific response to answer each question. Six variations are listed below.

Hell Yes---------------HY: You are strongly in favor of "yes"
Yes---------------------YES: You are in favor of "yes"
Most Likely-----------ML: You are not sure, but leans toward "yes"
Most Likely Not-----MLN: You are not sure, but leans toward "no"
No----------------------NO: You are in favor of "no"
Hell No----------------HN: You are strongly in favor of "no"

You should choose a response that best describes how sure you are about the question asked. If you feel really confident, choose the most extreme response(HY or HN). However, it'll reflect negatively on your score if that "extreme response" turns out wrong. So, try to find the best balance for your predictions. Who knows, there may be a bit of strategy involved here...

Earning Points:
You'll earn points for each response. From highest to lowest, the variation of points are below: (note: this rating system may be subject to change)

10____7____4____1.5____0____ -5

The responses you choose and the outcome of events at E³ will determine how many points you'll earn for answering each question. The example is provided below to explain how/why you receive the points you do.

question: Will it rain at E³?
response: MLN (most likely not)

E³ fact: uhh...let's say it didn't rain at E³...

A response of HN(hell no) would have gotten you the most points (10 pts) since it really didn't rain. Other responses will score accordingly...

N.......... 7 pts
MLN.....4 pts (this was the response in the example)
ML........1.5 pts
Y...........0 pts

As a result, a response of HY(hell yes) would be farthest away from the truth. Therefore, you'll get -5 points.


BETTING:
Here's a new addition you may like. It offers you a chance to make some doubloons along the way.

There maybe some instances where you feel so sure about your prediction, that you go beyond the usual "yes" or "no," and venture in the realm of absolute confidence. At which point, responses like "hell no" or "hell yes" seem much more appropriate As long as you think you are confident about your prediction(thereby, responding with "HN" or "HY"), you have the option to bet some doubloons on it.

for example:

Prediction without bet...

question: Will it rain at E³?
reply: HY (hell yes)

Prediction with bet...

question: Will it rain at E³?
reply: HY + 50

If it turns out that it did in fact rain at E³, you not only get a full 10 pts for your extremely accurate prediction, but you also win TWICE the number of doubloons you bet...(100 dblns in the case of the example). The maximum you can place on a bet is 50 dblns. For the official thread, you'll be asked to round off your bet to the nearest ten... therefore, you can place either 10, 20, 30, 40, or 50 doubloons on a bet.

This adds a new dimension to the contest, as you are not only competing to attain the highest score, but you are also on a quest to win some doubloons... even if it's risky!

That's right, there's a down-side, quite an unforgiving one too!

Though you'll double the amount you bet, the penalty for losing the bet is harsh and comes with the fact that you'll loose 2.5 x the amount you bet. Ouch!. But hey, if you're that confident, then you shouldn't fear losing, right?

This chart should simplify things a little... it shows you how much you'll win or lose if you bet a given amount.

bet..................win / lose
10....................20 / 25
20....................40 / 50
30....................60 / 75
40....................80 / 100
50....................100 / 125

Note: 1) you can bet on your prediction if and only if your prediction choice were "extreme" (through a response of HN or HY). 2) You are NOT obliged to bet, it's your choice. 3) Bets from staff members will be discarded since they have unlimited dblns, but still feel free to toss in a bet if it's a point you wish to prove.

*Tips*

--You'll automatically lose points for not responding to a question, or not responding appropriately. Be sure not to skip any.

--Betting is cool and all, but don't forget your ultimate goal... earning points. Your total score will be translated to doubloons in the end.

--Control your betting, you wouldn't want to be in debt with GT..we'll hunt your ass down!! (failure to acquire doubloons to pay back GT should result in a 1-2 wk ban..but hey, that's not my call)

--You can change edit your entries until the very last minute, so if you get any hints/hunches that may assist you, fell free to edit your post. However, some questions may be omitted in the end if I'm notified of any serious "spoiler-type" information that was revealed on the net, before E³.

--Trust your gamer's instinct. Use reasoning where possible.

--If you know you aren't sure about a question, then try not to use extreme responses(HN/HY). You may earn little or no points, but at least you would not get a deduction if you're wrong. Still, there's a chance you may be right too... So, it's all up to you, do what ever you want!

That's more than you need to get started. Of course, there are a few more things to know about the contest, but those things pertain to the contest results, and you'll know everything else later done the line. Also, will be a recap of any important points/rules in the contest, so I doubt you'll have to look back here again.
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Blessed is he who hath tasted, understands, and can testify that this is true. Glory to God!

Last edited by D-realJos : 05-12-2002 at 11:09 PM.
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Old 05-11-2002, 12:51 AM   #2
Mushlafa
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woot... im the first to reply... sounds like fun, cant wait.

I forgot when E3 is but its around like may 17'th throught 20'th? Thats what it was last year i think.

Uhhh... yeah.... good job D-real.
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Old 05-11-2002, 01:09 AM   #3
GameKinG
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Hell Yes.
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Old 05-11-2002, 01:26 AM   #4
Jonbo298
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I know more is gonna be explained later but I jsut wanted to know (since im new to this contest, didnt look at it last year) but will questions be randomly put up by D-real and people respond with their answers? or how will it run? if it sounds good I will do it since I am I guess a bum and STILL only have 100 dblns. but what the hell, I could become the only person to have 10 dblns after I suffer heavy losses if I do this wrongly(and I probably will)
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Old 05-11-2002, 01:51 AM   #5
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If its the same as last year, he will post all the questions at once, and have you answer all of them, with the choices he game you (hell yes...ect.)
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Old 05-11-2002, 01:54 AM   #6
D-realJos
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AHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!

WTF????

I thought this years E³ will start on the 21 of this months....

Where da fuk have I been?? I'm way behind time then....

please tell me Mushlafa is wrong. pleaseeeeeeeee!


Quote:
but will questions be randomly put up by D-real and people respond with their answers? or how will it run? if it sounds good I will do it since I am I guess a bum and STILL only have 100 dblns. but what the hell, I could become the only person to have 10 dblns after I suffer heavy losses if I do this wrongly
Don't worry man, it'll be VERY simple, when you SEE it. It'll be especially easy to follow along after you see how a few people do it. All you'll really have to do it basically copy/paste the all the questions, and replace my personal responses with your own. You can feel free to throw in a few bets along the way. That's basically it, everything else will fall into place. Isn't life sweet?

As for your small share of doubloons... yeah, I thought 70 dblns entry fee is a bit high for the poor. I originally had 50 in mind(as that's the required charged for contests, but that's a bit low, considering you may be able to walk away with 100+ dblns(based on a score conversion alone). I also had 65 in mind, so if I do go soft and lower the fee, 65 is as low as I'll go.

but really, don't sweat... ask anyone(like Mushlafa, or GameKing) how easy it is to join in...

I'm sure they'll tell you it's a breeze, so don't worry. You see!

Also, if you feel betting is too risky for a poor man like your self...then don't bet. Still, there might be at least one instance where you feel you can bring in some dough...if so, feel free to bet. Be warned though, E³ is unpredictable(for the most part), the minute you think you have it all figured out....BAM! you actually don't.
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-- John 10:10

Blessed is he who hath tasted, understands, and can testify that this is true. Glory to God!
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Old 05-11-2002, 02:02 AM   #7
GameKinG
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You have 11 days until E3, less considering we want to enter results BEFORE then. You should close post on the sunday before then, so you should maybe open it on thursday or something...I dunno. You may have sometime planed. It starts on the 21st.

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Old 05-11-2002, 02:13 AM   #8
D-realJos
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Thanks GameKing...

Yeah, Thursday is good because I wanted everyone to have at least 4 days to submit their entries.
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-- John 10:10

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Old 05-11-2002, 07:23 AM   #9
Shadow_Link
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Hehe, count me in! Oh D-real, could you by any chance give me the score I obtained in last years competition?
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Old 05-11-2002, 10:26 AM   #10
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I'm in ....I see myself getting lots of Dblns...screw the points.
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Old 05-11-2002, 11:02 AM   #11
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hmmm...I remember playing this last year...it was a whole lot of fun, I remember I was in the top 5, until all of a sudden it wasnt updated anymore...I hope that dosent happen this time...
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Old 05-11-2002, 11:15 AM   #12
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I shall play again.
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Old 05-11-2002, 11:47 AM   #13
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YEYE.... Count me in....

Oh, and Dreal.... Please PM me or something about what you want me to do to help you with this contest.
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Old 05-11-2002, 11:59 AM   #14
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I've decided I will do it. Thanks for convincing me to join!
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Old 05-11-2002, 12:29 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally posted by D-realJos
AHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!

WTF????

I thought this years E³ will start on the 21 of this months....

Where da fuk have I been?? I'm way behind time then....

please tell me Mushlafa is wrong. pleaseeeeeeeee!




Yeah man I was jusr guessing
I havent been followin much of GC news and stuff lately so I dont know what day it is this year. I meant it to be a question but whatever :P Now i know
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