New Hampshire Republican Debate

Professor S · 06-13-2011, 12:10 PM

I'll be posting my thoughts on the debate later tonight. Here are my predictions:

- Ron Paul "shakes" his way out of serious contention with his usual uncomfortable delivery and unapologetic libertarian views. If the dialogue remains about the debt and economy and say "I told ou so in 2008", he has a shot to keep in play. If they push him on abortion and drugs, though, he'll become irrelevant.

- Herman Cain will gain some attention for his charismatic delivery, but will seriously flub at least two questions due to his ignorance regarding foreign policy.

- Rick Santorum will score major points with conservatives with his confident speaking style and devotion to social issues. He also does the best job of explaining the Ryan budget plan.

- Michele Bachman will embarrass herself and the Republican party.

- Tim Pawlenty will continue to shrink in front of the camera on the big stage. He's not bad on policy or ignorant. He's just not memorable. Perhaps his planned assault on Romney will break him out, even if it submarines chances to win in 2012.

- Newt Gingrich will say some stuf that no one will pay attention to because the failure of his campaign is more entertaining than his policy.

- Mitt Romney - The best thing he did was stand behind his controversial issues. It looks like he has decided that the best path to victory is with the silent center-right majority of the Republican party. If he sticks with this plan, and does a decent job of explaining Romneycare, he should coast through this debate (and the primaries) relatively unscathed. He does have a history of crumbling under debate pressure, though, but lets see if time has helped him adjust to the spotlight.

Check back later and see if my predictions are accurate, and share your own thoughts.

Bond · 06-13-2011, 02:07 PM

Well... I think Romney and Pawlenty are the only serious contenders here, and as you elude to, Pawlenty is a marginal candidate at best. My prediction is that Bachman, if she runs, will take away too much of the vote in Iowa and stop Pawlenty from winning the caucus.

I am patiently waiting for Jon Huntsman Jr. to announce, and slightly interested to see if Perry will run.

Professor S · 06-13-2011, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bond

Well... I think Romney and Pawlenty are the only serious contenders here, and as you elude to, Pawlenty is a marginal candidate at best. My prediction is that Bachman, if she runs, will take away too much of the vote in Iowa and stop Pawlenty from winning the caucus.

I am patiently waiting for Jon Huntsman Jr. to announce, and slightly interested to see if Perry will run.

Apart from my personal disgust for him, I think Santorum is a definite sleeper. He could break through as a serious contender.

Bond · 06-13-2011, 02:13 PM

That's possible, but I think he'd only fare well in Iowa, where Bachmann and Pawlenty will siphon off the vote.

I also agree and can't wait to see Gingrich. "Mr. Gingrich, how do you respond to your staff firing you?"

Professor S · 06-13-2011, 08:19 PM

Is it just me or is John King trying his hardest to start a childish name-calling contest instead of moderating a debate?

Bond · 06-13-2011, 08:25 PM

Potentially seems that way ... Bachmann is surprisingly impressive (granted I did have extremely low expectations). This probably won't happen, because it would be too Palin-esque, but she would be a good running mate for Romney or Huntsman.

Professor S · 06-13-2011, 08:53 PM

So far everyone has come across pretty strong. Pawlenty looks like he is getting comfortable. Ron Paul sounds very knowledgeable, if perhaps repetitive, about monetary policy. Santorum has taken several opportunities to insert himself into the debate and capture valuable face time. I'd like to see the minutes per candidate so far. Romney doesn't appear to have many questions coming his way.

Professor S · 06-13-2011, 10:07 PM

I'll be brief, since its hard at this point to say anyone is a frontrunner. Overall, everyone did a decent job.

Winners

Rick Santorum, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich

Stayed their Ground

Michele Bachman, Ron Paul

Losers

Herman Cain

Bond · 06-15-2011, 11:27 AM

Jon Huntsman is announcing in six days. Leaps and bounds ahead of the other candidates in my opinion:

Professor S · 06-15-2011, 12:53 PM

...

What? That is the worst commercial I've ever seen.

Bond · 06-15-2011, 01:19 PM

I'm assuming there will be one each day until the announcement and it will make sense in the larger context of several videos.

Professor S · 06-15-2011, 01:24 PM

I'm intrigued by Huntsman, but don;t know much about him beyond that he was an effective ambassador to China and a reportedly good Governor of Utah. What intrigues me is that the far right are already going after him, so he must have the ability to have a nuanced opinion.

Bond · 06-16-2011, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Professor S

I'm intrigued by Huntsman, but don;t know much about him beyond that he was an effective ambassador to China and a reportedly good Governor of Utah. What intrigues me is that the far right are already going after him, so he must have the ability to have a nuanced opinion.

He's good. I think you'll like him.

Bond · 06-17-2011, 01:12 PM

Bond · 06-22-2011, 01:06 AM

And for the triple post ... this issue needs to be fully exploited by the GOP field:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110622/...V4Y2x1c2l2ZW0-