First Presidential Debate

[Professor S]

One area of concern for the Obama campaign is that he isn't above 50% in any major poll. Also, many of the polls are using 2008 turnout models, and it's yet to be seen if 2012 will mirror 2008 in terms of minority and youth voting.

[The Germanator]

Originally Posted by Professor S

One area of concern for the Obama campaign is that he isn't above 50% in any major poll. Also, many of the polls are using 2008 turnout models, and it's yet to be seen if 2012 will mirror 2008 in terms of minority and youth voting.

Again, are you talking national polls? Nate Silver just posted about how Obama is leading in 19/20 of swing state polls that came out today...If he wins just a few of those (especially Ohio), it's simple he'll win...And the polls are especially strong in Ohio.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ically-biased/

Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium is even more bullish on Obama, basically giving him a 98% chance to win. He was even more accurate than Silver last election.

http://election.princeton.edu/

[Professor S]

Originally Posted by The Germanator

Again, are you talking national polls? Nate Silver just posted about how Obama is leading in 19/20 of swing state polls that came out today...If he wins just a few of those (especially Ohio), it's simple he'll win...And the polls are especially strong in Ohio.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ically-biased/

Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium is even more bullish on Obama, basically giving him a 98% chance to win. He was even more accurate than Silver last election.

http://election.princeton.edu/

I'm looking at the RCP information, and considering past history of incumbents with less than a 50% polling average, and well behind in independent voters. As I said, the current models are anticipating something close to a 2008 turn out, and that would mean an Obama victory. If dems do not come out in large numbers, Romney's lead with independents will likely lead him to victory.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html

I have a feeling this is going to be a weird election night with some serious surprises going both ways. I have this nagging feeling PA is in play...

[TheGame]

I think the voter turn out will be high, which is the only good thing about the media's 'falsely balanced' coverage. People who are pro Obama actually think he can lose, so they'll be more likely to vote... If the media told the truth and labeled it as Obama being clearly ahead all the time, then it would probably cost him some votes.