TheGame:
I don't think your Xbox comparison is apt, though. The Xbox was an entire console. Move is a peripheral added on four years into the life cycle.
Moreover, you're talking about cross generational success. You argue that the Xbox was a success in the sense that it got the brand name out there and allowed Microsoft to have a successful and almost-profitable Xbox 360 (I say "almost" because apparently the Red Ring of Death ate up nearly all the profit Microsoft could have gotten).
What I'm saying is that Move will fail in this generation. I don't discount the possibility that Move 2 will be widely adopted when it launches on the PS4.
Now here's where I think we really disagree: if I understand you correctly, you're saying that by launching Move on the PS3, Sony makes it more likely that Move 2 will be widely adopted on the PS4. I disagree. I think Move 2 will be fine if it comes standard with the console and if the technology works well, but it will do so on its own merits. I think that by the time the PS4 launches, the original Move will be largely forgotten. Keep in mind here that Sony says they will be launching the PS4 five years from now. By that time, Move will have already failed to sell any appreciable numbers and be widely deemed as a copycat gimmick that didn't catch on. The empirical numbers don't lie. The most successful peripheral of all time is probably the Wii Balance Board which only a third of Wii users purchased at most. And Move is not going to be as successful as the Balance Board.
Also, I just want to make one other minor point:
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that there's a good chance that Sony and Microsoft set realistic expectations for these units.
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I'm not going to address Microsoft at the moment because we still don't know important details about Natal (like its price and launch software), but I don't have as much faith as you that Sony "set realistic expectations" for anything. We're talking about the company who thought it would be a good idea to sell a console for almost $700 and make it obscenely difficult to develop for. And then have the creator come out saying that the PS3 is so great that people would be willing to take out a second mortgage in order to own one. I'm just saying their foresight hasn't been the greatest.