Sony Motion Controller

[Xantar]

TheGame:

I don't think your Xbox comparison is apt, though. The Xbox was an entire console. Move is a peripheral added on four years into the life cycle.

Moreover, you're talking about cross generational success. You argue that the Xbox was a success in the sense that it got the brand name out there and allowed Microsoft to have a successful and almost-profitable Xbox 360 (I say "almost" because apparently the Red Ring of Death ate up nearly all the profit Microsoft could have gotten).

What I'm saying is that Move will fail in this generation. I don't discount the possibility that Move 2 will be widely adopted when it launches on the PS4.

Now here's where I think we really disagree: if I understand you correctly, you're saying that by launching Move on the PS3, Sony makes it more likely that Move 2 will be widely adopted on the PS4. I disagree. I think Move 2 will be fine if it comes standard with the console and if the technology works well, but it will do so on its own merits. I think that by the time the PS4 launches, the original Move will be largely forgotten. Keep in mind here that Sony says they will be launching the PS4 five years from now. By that time, Move will have already failed to sell any appreciable numbers and be widely deemed as a copycat gimmick that didn't catch on. The empirical numbers don't lie. The most successful peripheral of all time is probably the Wii Balance Board which only a third of Wii users purchased at most. And Move is not going to be as successful as the Balance Board.

Also, I just want to make one other minor point:

that there's a good chance that Sony and Microsoft set realistic expectations for these units.

I'm not going to address Microsoft at the moment because we still don't know important details about Natal (like its price and launch software), but I don't have as much faith as you that Sony "set realistic expectations" for anything. We're talking about the company who thought it would be a good idea to sell a console for almost $700 and make it obscenely difficult to develop for. And then have the creator come out saying that the PS3 is so great that people would be willing to take out a second mortgage in order to own one. I'm just saying their foresight hasn't been the greatest.

[thatmariolover]

Originally Posted by Xantar

What I'm saying is that Move will fail in this generation. I don't discount the possibility that Move 2 will be widely adopted when it launches on the PS4.

This is how I feel, but I'll elaborate.

The Move will be cool, but current games will not support it, and going forward it's going to be all about developer support. And even that breaks down into development cost and how good the toolkits and drivers are. Sony needs to provide tools so that motion detection can be ported from console to console.

Anyway, work is over and I need to finish some things up but I'll finish this later.

[manasecret]

Originally Posted by Xantar

Keep in mind here that Sony says they will be launching the PS4 five years from now.

This is a question that I think affects the debate.

When do people here predict the next consoles will start coming out?

I hear that Sony and MS are saying another five years or some such long time, but rumor is that the new Wii will come out 2012.

I think if Wii does come out in 2012, Sony and MS will be forced to come out with something soon after, no later that 2013 (or a year later).

[BreakABone]

Originally Posted by manasecret

This is a question that I think affects the debate.

When do people here predict the next consoles will start coming out?

I hear that Sony and MS are saying another five years or some such long time, but rumor is that the new Wii will come out 2012.

I think if Wii does come out in 2012, Sony and MS will be forced to come out with something soon after, no later that 2013 (or a year later).

I don't want to talk Natal too much, because we haven't really seen working software yet, but if what I'm hearing is true, its nothing more than an attempt to capture the casual audience.

The simple fact is both of these devices are simple stop gaps to prolong the normal duration of this generation. I mean if you think about it, the 360 would be 5 this year and that's generally when a new console would be expected to debut, but as I've stated in the past, all 3 companies are in a position where it makes no sense to jump ahead.

Wii- Nintendo has captured an audience they have never seen before, and most be careful with their next console. They can't afford to make it too expensive, but on the same hand must have it compete on a technical level and offer something that makes a Wii owner want to upgrade.

360- The 360 has a stellar line-up and the best 3rd party support of all the consoles. MS is not guaranteed the same type of success at the start of the next gen especially...

Ps3- Sony and its developers are finally coming to terms with the hardware, not only are they making great looking games, but original games at that. They are finally picking up momentum, and on a global basis either outsells or is pretty damn close to the Xbox.

My guess is that after the motion control stop gap ends, all companies will be ready to roll with something in 2012.

Also quote from Sega PR on Natal/Move

I think Natal and the Sony Motion Controller allow us to do things that are more about multi, party gaming.

In a way, it's a move away potentially from the core. That's what we're actually getting good at. Mario & Sonic is a multi-party game - but it's actually good fun. Microsoft and Sony are telling us that actually, we don't have to spend $20 million to get things consumers like, because you can approach things with games that are repetitive fun - easy to pick up and pass around. That's where we could either use old Sega IP or come up with new ideas.

The challenge for both first parties is to make sure the installed base of these devices is as high as they've claimed it will be.

If you look at how many Xbox 360s or PS3s there in Europe - let's say 12 million of each - if they get an attached rated of 12-and-a-half per cent with these [motion] devices, that's 2.5 million consumers for us to go after. If ten per cent of those buy our games, that's 250,000. How much money can you realistically spend on development for that audience?

But Microsoft and Sony are talking very big numbers. If they can achieve that, it will make these devices very viable. Could sales of Natal hit 50 per cent of those current installed base? We think the price point will be very attractive. 360 has a long way to go with a lot more hardware - so, for example, if they were to bundle Natal, it's a home run if they can afford to do that. I would imagine both Microsoft and Sony are going to spend big development money to make these devices very attractive.

We'll certainly be supporting both. We have several games on both [move] and Natal that you will see from around the end of this year and into 2011.

[TheGame]

Originally Posted by manasecret

This is a question that I think affects the debate.

When do people here predict the next consoles will start coming out?

I hear that Sony and MS are saying another five years or some such long time, but rumor is that the new Wii will come out 2012.

I think if Wii does come out in 2012, Sony and MS will be forced to come out with something soon after, no later that 2013 (or a year later).

That's a good question, it has also been on the back of my mind in this thread.

I think this Generation will be longer then what we're used to, because nobody really failed bad enough to want it to end quickly.