In all the history of videogames, an add-on has never caught on.
As you would have figured out if you had read my past posts. Manasecret got it. Angrist got it. Justin got it. Why can't you?
If I recall Playstation was spawned as an add-on of the SNES.
I wonder how that company is doing now.
My point is this:
Just because one hasn't caught on in the past, doesn't mean it will never happen.
Will it happen now? I don't know. I'm not clairvoyant. And frankly I have no stake in the company so I don't care.
What I've been saying is this is taking away the single thing that made the Wii unique. Aside from titles of Mario and Zelda and various "____ Wii" games, after the SMC and Natal are released, Nintendo will be an inferior machine.
Will it still sell? Of course it will.
But Sony and Microsoft have added 2 more options on the market, despite being add-ons.
Before if you wanted to get your kid some motion control thing, you'd HAVE to get the Wii, even if your kid somehow has a PS3 and a 360.
So instead of getting an entirely new system, they can just get one of the add-ons.
You'd (general, not specific you) be insane to think that Sony won't make Wii-esque games to ride the coattails of the popularity of casual gaming, which then just blurs the lines a little more.
Will it catch on with a flaming heat never seen before? Of course not.
But will the motion controller and Natal completely fall by the wayside? Fuck no, that's the 'wave of the future' as it is.
If anything all this does is make the market more competative, and force companies to actually make good games that use motion control because there is more than 1 option, so it's not a sure-fire sell anymore.
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Re: Sony Motion Controller
As a note, can we calm down on the personal insults. Yes, I'm guilty of it as well, but I guess what happens when people have somewhat of a passion of what talking about.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Typhoid
I meant to put 'prefer' in there.
Of the games that use motion control, please post a long list of games that are considered "Awesome games to have for motion control" that aren't the following:
Wii Sports/Resort
Any game with 'Wii' in the name
Mario Kart/Mario
Madworld
And of course there is a very tiny percentage of games that actually offer GC support. There are hundreds of nameless and faceless boxes of crap for the Wii that are made for toddlers. If you flood the market with crap, it will obviously change the ratios.
Well now you are just limiting things.
But let's see from what I've played
No More Heroes 1/2
Medal of Honor Heroes 2
The Conduit (you said where the controls are better, not necessarily a great game)
World of Goo
Swords and Soldiers
Lost Winds
Metroid Prime Trilogy/Corruption
House of the Dead: Overkill
Tiger Woods
Boom Blox/Boom Blox Party
Rayman Raving Rabbids
EA Sports Active
Quote:
This is what I don't get. This view.
Wii Motion Control = great idea! Brilliant! Plan the parade route!
Sony Motion Control/Natal = Terrible idea. Won't work. Epic failure.
This is where comprehension comes in.
I have never said that Move/Natal are terrible ideas, I mean not to my knowledge, sure someone can dig up an old quote.
I don't think Move/Natal are terrible ideas
I don't think they won't work
I do think that they have to overcome that hurdle the Wii is built on motion, the controller is given as an option in few games
As you say, everyone you knows prefers the controller, how would it be different w/ the Natal/Move?
In terms of success/failure for Move/Natal, as much as I follow the industry, I'm not really sure which measurement is suitable. I mean the devices will sell, there's no question about that, and there will be games, but it won't topple the world, I guess.
Here are the basic troubles that Natal/Move has to overcome
1) Developer's support, right now the 360 and Ps3 sit at around 39 and 31 million consoles sold apiece, why would you negate that HUGE pool of gamers for a device that currently has 0 users.
2) Gamer's support
As Typhoid pointed out, he prefers his games with a normal controller, I'm sure there are a TON of gamers who follow that, and if not, there's always the "if it isn't broken why fix mentality" I mean I get along perfectly fine with my Sixaxis and Xbox controller. I don't see a need to invest in more hardware when I can play pretty much what I want now.
On the other end of the spectrum, the so-called "casual" gamers have made the Wii their home. As they have shown or at least evidence would point towards, they don't care much for graphics, and decent online implementations is good enough for them, so it really negates any advantages that they other two would have in converting them.
3) Time frame, both of these are coming out late in their respective consoles life-span. Honestly, the story of this generation has been written, and I don't see much changing.
4) Games
At the end of the day, what it comes down to.
And I don't know how to phrase this, but most games have their audiences by now, a new Metal Gear or Final Fantasy or Halo or Resistance or Uncharted or Gears or Fable with motion controls really would help shift focus, as those games have their audiences and you would only be grabbing a small subset of them with it.
Casual game market is pretty much cornered between the Wii and the PC. So you may get some stragglers, but not much else.
As a note, can we calm down on the personal insults. Yes, I'm guilty of it as well, but I guess what happens when people have somewhat of a passion of what talking about.
It's not my fault that Typhoid is incapable of reading and understanding past posts in this thread. If you have a problem with my pointing that out, ban me.
Anyway, once again, Typhoid misses the point, refuses to provide any evidence or a semblance of an argument, and then goes off on a tangent.
I rest my case.
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It's not my fault that Typhoid is incapable of reading and understanding past posts in this thread. If you have a problem with my pointing that out, ban me.
Anyway, once again, Typhoid misses the point, refuses to provide any evidence or a semblance of an argument, and then goes off on a tangent.
I rest my case.
Back to the insults, eh?
Well at least you lasted a solid 1 post.
I'm proud of you.
.....How is stating my point a tangent?
That's been my point the entire time.
My point has never been the success, nor the failure.
__________________ Fingerbang:
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Sorry Xantar, I concede.
You know far more about Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft than I - a mere pleb can ever hope to imagine.
How I manage to type words when I'm randomly smacking the keyboard with my fists amazes even I.
Hell, I'm even amazed I remember to breathe with such an inferior intellect and such a smaller penis than a man as great as you.
It's the internet. Get over yourself.
Reply if your massive throbbing cock feels the need - but I won't read it.
And in lieu of 'abusing my moderator powers', I'm not locking the thread - since I know you probably won't be able to resist posting back to this despite the fact I'm not going to read it.
__________________ Fingerbang:
1.) The sexual act where a finger is inserted into the vagina or anus. Headbang:
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That's been my point the entire time.
My point has never been the success, nor the failure.
Then you never had any point to make to me. The only point I was trying to make -- the ONLY one -- was this
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xantar
So...we can all agree Sony Move is going to fail, right? Is anybody going to bother actually arguing my point?
That's it. Whatever argument you have going on with BAB or anybody else is tangential because the only thing I was trying to say was that from the point of view of sales, business or any other standard you choose, Move is going to fail. It's not going to sell. Most people are not going to buy it. I'm sorry you decided to read way more into it than was actually right there on the screen, but that wasn't my problem.
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Re: Sony Motion Controller
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xantar
Tell you what, though: you tell me what your standard is for Move to be considered a success or a failure. I guarantee Move will not meet it. You can save this post and come back to it a year from now if you like.
I look at the move like the original Xbox.. Xbox got out sold 5:1 by Ps2, and did not turn a profit. But I still consider it a sucsess. Why? Because it did what M$ wanted it to do, get their foot in the door of the gaming industry, and kept enough support to hold the system up for 4 years.
The Ps360 motion controls are the same way. It's a gamble. I'm sure Microsoft and Sony are well versed in the history of the gaming industry, and they know that these add-ons are not going to become something that's essential for the system..
With that said, for me there's a LOT of grey area as far as sucsess and failure.
I'd say if the motion controls sell less then 2 million, then it's a failure without question. Anything more, then it's sucsess will be defined by how much the controls are supported and how long, and if there's some type of swing in month to month sales of Ps360s vs Wii. I think having the option of the controls could impact sales more then the unit will sell itself.
So I'm in the same boat if you don't think these motion controls will be the next big thing.. but I do think they could swing some sales, and that there's a good chance that Sony and Microsoft set realistic expectations for these units.
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There are two ways to succeed or fail here -- 1. In sales/profitibility, and 2. What Game touched on, future success, or PS4 and Xbox720 success.
In terms of sales/profitability, I think almost everyone agrees that they will fail miserably. Off the top of my head, I would guess 2-4 million sold each over the next 2-3 years.
But in terms of future success, I think releasing the Move and Natal now are probably the best decision. Sony and MS can get their feet wet with an add-on that will last a couple years at most, and work out any kinks before they release an entire new system that they will have to work with for some 10 years. As they say, every failure is a success in some way, since at the very least you have learned lessons along the way that will help you in the future.
Well, it's not just the fact that it's a peripheral that will make it more difficult. It's the fact that it's an expensive perpipheral. The last blurb I read put the starter kit at $100.
I personally doubt Sony can market it, but I've seen stranger things happen.
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Re: Sony Motion Controller
Quote:
Originally Posted by manasecret
There are two ways to succeed or fail here -- 1. In sales/profitibility, and 2. What Game touched on, future success, or PS4 and Xbox720 success.
In terms of sales/profitability, I think almost everyone agrees that they will fail miserably. Off the top of my head, I would guess 2-4 million sold each over the next 2-3 years.
But in terms of future success, I think releasing the Move and Natal now are probably the best decision. Sony and MS can get their feet wet with an add-on that will last a couple years at most, and work out any kinks before they release an entire new system that they will have to work with for some 10 years. As they say, every failure is a success in some way, since at the very least you have learned lessons along the way that will help you in the future.
I guess I'll play Devil's Advocate here since this isn't a pro/anti-Nintendo thread
But on the flip side, which few people are looking at I guess, and it may just be a minor point, but Sony and Microsoft can both find that maybe motion controls don't work for them.
I mean motion controls has a bad rep as it is from all the shovelware on the Wii, and if they find that many 3rd parties won't support it or they may not sell well, it could be like the EyeToy from last gen where its out there, but its really low key and under the table.
Well, it's not just the fact that it's a peripheral that will make it more difficult. It's the fact that it's an expensive perpipheral. The last blurb I read put the starter kit at $100.
I personally doubt Sony can market it, but I've seen stranger things happen.
That's launch price though.
Everything is more expensive at launch...typically.
However, I don't find $100 too bad. When it comes out, I'll buy it.
A Wii is what, 130 bucks? I bought that and I never play it.
Considering games are 65-80 bucks these days, 100 isn't really a huge deal.
The reason I like the move, as I've been talking to Bab about; is that it looks really good. Game-wise. There is potential for really visually pleasing FPS', that are fun at the same time where you're not just twiddling your thumbs.
And it also has potential for more casual games that don't look like they're intended for 4 year olds.
Lots of families have a PS3 already because of the built in blu-ray, and I don't think it's a stretch to think that they'd spend an extra 100 bucks to entertain their 6-10 year old kids. Same as I don't think it's a stretch that a college kid who miraculously has 'extra' money will buy it for drinking games, or playing FPS'.
It won't sell like wildfire, and it won't change the industry.
But it will be as fun as the wii, and look good while doing it.
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I don't think your Xbox comparison is apt, though. The Xbox was an entire console. Move is a peripheral added on four years into the life cycle.
Moreover, you're talking about cross generational success. You argue that the Xbox was a success in the sense that it got the brand name out there and allowed Microsoft to have a successful and almost-profitable Xbox 360 (I say "almost" because apparently the Red Ring of Death ate up nearly all the profit Microsoft could have gotten).
What I'm saying is that Move will fail in this generation. I don't discount the possibility that Move 2 will be widely adopted when it launches on the PS4.
Now here's where I think we really disagree: if I understand you correctly, you're saying that by launching Move on the PS3, Sony makes it more likely that Move 2 will be widely adopted on the PS4. I disagree. I think Move 2 will be fine if it comes standard with the console and if the technology works well, but it will do so on its own merits. I think that by the time the PS4 launches, the original Move will be largely forgotten. Keep in mind here that Sony says they will be launching the PS4 five years from now. By that time, Move will have already failed to sell any appreciable numbers and be widely deemed as a copycat gimmick that didn't catch on. The empirical numbers don't lie. The most successful peripheral of all time is probably the Wii Balance Board which only a third of Wii users purchased at most. And Move is not going to be as successful as the Balance Board.
Also, I just want to make one other minor point:
Quote:
that there's a good chance that Sony and Microsoft set realistic expectations for these units.
I'm not going to address Microsoft at the moment because we still don't know important details about Natal (like its price and launch software), but I don't have as much faith as you that Sony "set realistic expectations" for anything. We're talking about the company who thought it would be a good idea to sell a console for almost $700 and make it obscenely difficult to develop for. And then have the creator come out saying that the PS3 is so great that people would be willing to take out a second mortgage in order to own one. I'm just saying their foresight hasn't been the greatest.
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Lots of families have a PS3 already because of the built in blu-ray, and I don't think it's a stretch to think that they'd spend an extra 100 bucks to entertain their 6-10 year old kids. Same as I don't think it's a stretch that a college kid who miraculously has 'extra' money will buy it for drinking games, or playing FPS'.
No peripheral has ever sold well. Forget "selling like wildfire." No peripheral has ever sold well. Period. And this is an expensive peripheral.
The best response you've got to that is "I think the Move is neat-o and it's not that hard for me to imagine families spending an extra $100 on a console they already spent $500 on"? Really?
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What I'm saying is that Move will fail in this generation. I don't discount the possibility that Move 2 will be widely adopted when it launches on the PS4.
This is how I feel, but I'll elaborate.
The Move will be cool, but current games will not support it, and going forward it's going to be all about developer support. And even that breaks down into development cost and how good the toolkits and drivers are. Sony needs to provide tools so that motion detection can be ported from console to console.
Anyway, work is over and I need to finish some things up but I'll finish this later.
Last edited by thatmariolover : 03-18-2010 at 10:45 AM.
Re: Sony Motion Controller
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