Zogby says Kerry wins

DeathsHand · 10-30-2004, 01:01 AM

I've heard so many theories on the way things will voters will "break" on election day...

On the Daily Show Zogby (I think it was him) said that the reason there were so many undecideds down to the wire was because they don't want Bush... But don't necesarily want Kerry, but in the end he predicted that overall, change is what people would vote for, which would be Kerry... Adding that if instead of the race being "Bush vs. Kerry", it was "Bush vs. Not Bush", "Not Bush" would win by a greater margin than Kerry would in the "Bush vs. Kerry" race...

I even heard somewhere that these polls could all be way off to begin with, because nowadays a lot of younger folk (a majority of which support Kerry) don't have a home phone line, just cell phones, which don't get polled... Meaning there could be some sort of hidden advantage for Kerry... *shrug*

I think it's going to be a very close and a very interesting race...

Neo · 10-30-2004, 02:34 AM

Yes I've read that too; there is speculation there is a large "hidden vote" for Kerry that the polsters can't tap into. Plus turn out this year is supposed to be high, and high turn out generally favors demorcats.

Typhoid · 10-30-2004, 03:05 AM

Speaking of voter turnout, i was watching some show which i completely forget, but it was talking about college student aged, or younger people. Basically the first year voters and such.

And it was talking about them possibly voting for Kerry (obviously not 100% of them) because they might be afraid of a back door draft.

So i want to know, 1) What is a back door draft? and 2) is it this:

Could Bush give an option to people who just graduated highschool, now this option states that if said person does not attend college, or get a job, he has to join the army? Technically, this would not be a draft, because you are given an option.

Yes, I am aware this post makes no sense.

DeathsHand · 10-30-2004, 04:01 AM

Apparently when people talk about back-door drafts they are talking about things like forcing people who are already enlisted to stay longer than they were supposed to (like even when they were supposed to be done with the armed forces altogether)... Like ways to make people go/stay in Iraq that isn't outright grabbing random Joe-Shmoe off the street and sending him to basic training...

I know people are sorta afraid of a draft in general... Which seems unlikely, but is scary at the same time... Democrats are the ones who tend to bring up the possibilty, Sort of like how Bush throws around the threat of the US itself being a target of terrorism, but to a lesser extent... Scare tactics... HEY LIKE THAT SHOW! HEHE!

Jason1 · 10-30-2004, 03:29 PM

We've held a mock election at my high school for the past 6 elections, and apparently we've correctly chosed the president every time. But I find this very hard to believe considering my town is so republicain baised its not even funny. Just as I thought, this year Bush came out on top by a nearly 2-1 margain. Hopefully we'll be wrong this time.

Xantar · 10-31-2004, 03:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neo

Yes I've read that too; there is speculation there is a large "hidden vote" for Kerry that the polsters can't tap into. Plus turn out this year is supposed to be high, and high turn out generally favors demorcats.

On the other hand, both parties (although seemingly Republicans a bit more than Democrats) are actively trying to invalidate votes. I, for example, can expect to face people trying to challenge my right to vote because I'm a college student in Pennsylvania rather than the owner of a permanent residence. I can still legally vote, and I know that partisan poll watchers have no right to stop me. However, not all voters are as well-informed as I am.

Then you've got the names of felons being expunged from voter rolls...except some of them are most certainly not felons. I don't know that very many names are being expunged from the rolls, but at a time when 500 votes in Florida could determine the next president, it might be enough.