Mafianic 815 Round 2: Into thin air

[jeepnut]

Originally Posted by Typhoid

Everyone just likes the cover song only because it's Johnny Cash.
I like the song. I like acoustic remakes of songs that shouldn't necessarily be acoustic in the first place, I just enjoy the NIN version of it more than the other one.

Generally I agree. I'm not a huge fan of either Johnny Cash or NIN, but I do like Cash's version of the song much better.

[Typhoid]

But WHY though.
Just because it's Johnny Cash?
If it was anyone else, it would just have been a "meh" track. But since it was his last song, everyone gushes over it, and even forgets NIN did it initially. I've heard so many people say "Man, I heard NIN cover that new Johnny Cash song", and that just infuriates me.

[flunkie44]

Posting to get my two in, in case I haven't.

..Actually, now that I think about it, this is my third. Oh well.

[jeepnut]

Originally Posted by Typhoid

But WHY though.
Just because it's Johnny Cash?
If it was anyone else, it would just have been a "meh" track. But since it was his last song, everyone gushes over it, and even forgets NIN did it initially. I've heard so many people say "Man, I heard NIN cover that new Johnny Cash song", and that just infuriates me.

Not sure why. I guarantee it's not just because it's Johnny Cash. I don't really care for anything else the man has done. But I don't like much of NIN stuff either.

Fine. I confess. I was just looking for a reason to vote for someone. Now I have to figure out a new scapegoat.

!retract Typhoid

[jeepnut]

Using a random number generator to choose one of our numbers, I hereby cast my vote for flunkie44.

Proof of randomness:

[Dylflon]

Originally Posted by jeepnut

Using a random number generator to choose one of our numbers, I hereby cast my vote for flunkie44.

Proof of randomness:

Proper voting format please or it doesn't count.

[GameMaster]

!vote Typhoid

Sorry friend. A secret, shadowy figure told me too...

[Bube]

!vote BaB

Do we have to state a reason? I've got reasons, I just don't want to share

[jeepnut]

Originally Posted by Dylflon

Proper voting format please or it doesn't count.

Whoops!
I !vote flunkie44

[Typhoid]

!Retract Bond


!Vote Bab

[Aladuf]

I don't know if I need to post here twice today too but I will before I go to work.

[Aladuf]

My vote from yesterday is still the same, no retractions here!

Yay! 2 posts... off to work now

[BreakABone]

If my math is correct current tally as it stands now

Typhoid- 5
Fox 6- 3
BaB- 2
Rock Adam- 1
Germie- 1
Cygb- 1
Danny- 1
James- 1
Bond- 1
Manasecret- 1
Flunkie- 1

[manasecret]

Before I vote, my reasoning for it.

First the facts. As we all know, thatmariolover (TML) was innocent and had some kind of special ability. He was killed by the Others. Now, what are the chances that the Others choose in the very first round someone with a special ability? Well, we can figure out the odds. We know how many people are playing -- 25. I don't know how these Mafia games are set up, but I guess that about 1/3 of the total original players are the Others. That would mean there are about 9 Others, and 16 Survivors. We also know that there are at least 3 special abilities on the Survivor side. So we can now estimate the odds of the Others choosing a Survivor with a special ability --

P = 3/16 = 18.75%.

18.75%. Slim chance, but still not impossible. But what if there were other clues... ?

The other fact is we know that Fox 6 voted for Swan, an innocent, very early on with no explanation. We also know that that vote for Swan was then followed by two more with little explanation, one from Typhoid, and the other from jeepnut.

Finally, we know that because TML was innocent, that the conversation between BaB and TML in the last round was true. TML was innocent, we know this, so he would have no reason to lie about that conversation. For those that didn't see that conversation, I will repeat it here. For those that know it, you of course can skip the following quotes.

Originally Posted by BreakABone

!vote Thatmariolover

He has been rather hush hush.

Originally Posted by thatmariolover

See, the problem with this BaB is you're a trendsetter. By hook or by crook you will get followers to do whatever you do.

And besides, I wasn't sneaking. I hardly need an excuse to want a little privacy when I go to relieve myself. You're trying awfully hard to figure out my role on AIM. Maybe you just want to find out how important I am so you can report off to your other minions.

Originally Posted by thatmariolover

!Retract Rock Adams

!Vote BreakABone

Too pushy BaB, I just don't trust you anymore.

Originally Posted by BreakaBone

!Retract That Mario Lover

I say now that he is more active in the thread, it could be a way of covering his ass, but really the Others are more likely to lay low.

Originally Posted by thatmariolover

!Retract BreakaBone

!Vote Rock Adams

An act of faith, for now.

After all that fuss, it was ended rather mysteriously as if it didn't happen. That's why as some may remember I thought it may have been a play they put on to fool others into thinking they were innocent.

But now things are different. We know TML was innocent, therefore the conversation must be true. Then why was it ended so mysteriously, with neither one voting for the other? Ah! We know why. TML explained it himself --

Originally Posted by thatmariolover

We talked a little more and I think the bottom line came to neither one of us really wanting to be voted off randomly in the first round. So we just kinda decided to back off and play it by ear for now.

Neither one wanted to be voted off! That's all it was!

Or was it?

Here is my argument:

Fox 6 is guilty. He voted early in the first round with no reason or explanation, for someone who was an innocent.

BaB is also guilty. He knew something about TML. BaB found something out in whatever conversations he had with TML behind closed doors. He may not have known anything explicitly, but he knew something was strange about TML.

So BaB must have thought, "How do I get rid of a Survivor that has a special ability without getting myself voted off?" And of course, that's easy! For an Other. His thoughts must have continued, "Why risk getting voted off the first round by voting for TML and incurring his wrath? I can take the heat and the votes off of myself, but still kill him anonymously as an Other! Quite simple really. No one would know, and we can still vote off another innocent." That other innocent being Swan in this case.

I can imagine your thoughts at this point. What a bunch of hair-brained logic. And I was at the same point myself until Fox 6 all but confirmed my suspicions.



Cut to Round 2:

Fox 6 knew of my suspicions of him for voting so early and so mysteriously for Swan the last round. He knew that I was watching him. So he thought he'd throw me off his trail. How?

He voted early and with no explanation again, but this time for BaB. That seemed to throw my theory out the window, but instead it only confirmed it.

When Fox 6 voted for BaB, I knew he would eventually change his vote. And, of course, he did. Why would an Other vote for another Other, and so quickly? Quite simple, to throw me off both of their trails. He wanted me to continue my logic from last round, thinking that whoever he voted for early must also be an innocent. Wily, yes, but not wily enough.

Fox 6 is guilty.

BaB is guilty.

I !vote Fox 6. BaB will be next.

[manasecret]

I have my suspicions for others. But at this point, I think Typhoid is genuine and not guilty.