In the end I think it was less Nate Silver's brilliance, and more turn out and Sandy ending Romney's momentum and the optics bringing the undecided vote to Pres. Obama.
There is one thing Nate's models can't predict, that is turn out, and if this election proves anything it is that young people are fully engaged and eager to vote. 2008 was not an anomaly. If Republicans want to be able to compete in the future, they are going to have to move towards Bond and I, offering visions of economic AND SOCIAL freedom, and not simply economic freedom. The single woman and Latino vote killed them this year, while social conservatives are a base on the verge of election irrelevancy. Somehow I think they're try and tack farther right, though... definition of insanity and all...
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Re: 2012 Presidential Election Thread
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Originally Posted by Professor S
In the end I think it was less Nate Silver's brilliance, and more turn out and Sandy ending Romney's momentum and the optics bringing the undecided vote to Pres. Obama.
There is one thing Nate's models can't predict, that is turn out, and if this election proves anything it is that young people are fully engaged and eager to vote. 2008 was not an anomaly. If Republicans want to be able to compete in the future, they are going to have to move towards Bond and I, offering visions of economic AND SOCIAL freedom, and not simply economic freedom. The single woman and Latino vote killed them this year, while social conservatives are a base on the verge of election irrelevancy. Somehow I think they're try and tack farther right, though... definition of insanity and all...
Sandy did not end Romney's "Romentum". It had already ended. Romney peaked with the week following the Denver debate and was still losing. It was a lot closer at that point, but Obama made back whatever he lost in the three weeks following. Sandy was politically helpful for Obama as callous as it sounds, but the cake was already in the oven.
And I guess I was too conservative in my predictions...I thought Romney might flip more than just NC and Indiana.
On another note: It's pretty awesome news that Maine, Maryland, and Washington state voted on pro-gay marriage referendums. Makes me feel better about things. Also that both Aiken and Mourdock lost after their ridiculous rape comments...
Also: I don't smoke marijuana, but congrats to Colorado and Washington for passing laws for recreational use. We'll see what the Federal government does, but I feel like that's a step in the right direction.
Last edited by The Germanator : 11-07-2012 at 09:56 AM.
Sandy did not end Romney's "Romentum". It had already ended. Romney peaked with the week following the Denver debate and was still losing. It was a lot closer at that point, but Obama made back whatever he lost in the three weeks following. Sandy was politically helpful for Obama as callous as it sounds, but the cake was already in the oven.
Not when you look at trends from RCP polling aggregates prior to the election. The last week saw an incredible spike for the Pres. along with Romney going flat when previously he had slowed, but steady, polling growth. If you look back at my posts you'll see I had a considerable shift in election opinion once Sandy hit.
Oh, and Chris Matthews agrees with me:
Classy guy, that one.
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Last edited by Professor S : 11-07-2012 at 11:28 AM.
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Re: 2012 Presidential Election Thread
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Originally Posted by Professor S
Not when you look at trends from RCP polling aggregates prior to the election. The last week saw an incredible spike for the Pres. along with Romney going flat when previously he had slowed, but steady, polling growth. If you look back at my posts you'll see I had a considerable shift in election opinion once Sandy hit.
Oh, and Chris Matthews agrees with me:
Classy guy, that one.
I felt like if anything, the storm took away one of Romney's key talking points that Obama couldn't work across the aisle when he worked alongside one of the most prominent Republican governors for the relief effort.
Also, nothing to do with anything, but I think Donald Trump has completely checked out
Same here. I mean, I don't want change for the sake of change. I want change I agree with.
It is sad that no progressive policies are going to go through and we are still going to be at the whim of reactionaries, though.
1) You got the change you agreed with in 2008
2) He passed exactly what he wanted for 2 years when he controlled government.
You have received what you asked for. But as I've often said when it comes progressive policy, the overriding reaction to failure tends to be "We just need to do it HARDER!"
At the very least we should get gridlock, and gridlock is much better than another Dodd-Frank or other interventionist policies that have frozen growth.
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Thread
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